【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月中国证券市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：26
        【目录或简介】：

MSCI China may stage a rally in April and May: The MSCI China
has underperformed the MSCI EM and MSCI World by 2.54% and
4.19%, respectively, in 1Q FY10. We believe there may be a window of
opportunity for MSCI China to stage a rally in April and May 2010,
given: 1) the improvements in China’s fundamentals, such as: a) no fullfledged
tightening in 2Q10—China needs time to gauge the effect of the
monetary tightening measures introduced in late FY09 as it takes around
six months for the monetary tightening measures to take effect; b) the
expected appreciation of Rmb as of 2Q FY10; c) China’s financial
market has already priced in three 27bp interest rate hikes this year; 2)
an improvement in the near-term liquidity situation: a) recent renewed
net inflows to offshore China equity funds; and b) we expect higher new
loans in April, versus March.
• But be mindful of possible further tightening risks in 2H10: Despite
our short-term bullish view on China equities, we maintain that China’s
excessive liquidity growth this year (down from 21% in FY09 to 5% in
FY10E) may not warrant a sustainable big rally this year as was seen in
FY09. We are still not ruling out the risk of possible additional
tightening measures in 2H10, if China’s economy suffers an overheating
situation, even though this is not our base-case scenario.
• We expect H shares to outperform A shares, given: 1) the substantial
supply-side pressure in the A-share market; 2) despite the launch of new
investment funds, the total units of funds of all registered asset
management companies in China actually suffered a decline in FY09 due
to the redemption of old investment funds; and 3) A shares’ premium
valuations over H shares.
• Key sector views: We stay bullish on: 1) insurance; 2) banks; 3) smalland-
mid caps on their attractive valuations, and rising fund flows from
mainland China; 4) consumer discretionary; 5) sectors with significant
operating leverage and those that stand to benefit from real economic
recovery and Rmb appreciation (airlines, paper); and 6) the defensive
growth basket of low penetration rate and strong secular growth.
Meanwhile, we maintain our cautious view on: 1) property; 2) FAIrelated
sectors; 3) telcos; 4) refineries; 5) consumer staples; and 6) oil
service companies.

Table of Contents
Investment summary................................................................3
MSCI China to rally in April and May?....................................5
The perceived improvements in China’s fundamentals ...............................................5
Rising liquidity flows into China equities....................................................................9
Mindful of concerns and uncertainties to MSCI China’s performance in 2H FY10..11
H-shares to outperform A-shares in the medium-term .......12
A-shares’ near-term performance boosted by the launch of A-shares index future ...12
Reasons for H-shares’ out-performance in the medium and longer term ..................12
H-shares’ small-and-mid caps offering good investment opportunities.....................15
Sector views ...........................................................................17
OW: Insurance, banks, consumer discretionary, paper, airlines, and defensive growth
basket .........................................................................................................................17
UW: Property, FAI-related names, telecoms, refinery, consumer stable, and oil
service ........................................................................................................................19
China model portfolio (CMP) adjustments ...........................20