东方证券A股2019年投资策略展望 余波虽未平，乘风启踏浪
研报摘要：2019 年 A 股的机会来自哪里？盈利增速下行、需求放缓、外部市场风险仍未消除等“余波”或仍会主导 A 股市场， 但另一方面，同样需要看到“乘风踏浪”的机会。我们认为，无论从估值水平的保护、政策底的夯实，还是从盈利周期有望见底回稳等角度来看，都值得我们对 2019 年 A 股市场抱更多的信心和期待。
昨日阅读2小时。 总阅读时间117小时
The business of value investing – Six essential elements to buying companies like Warren Buffett- Charlie Tian 2009
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-695143-1-1.html(Page 37-45)
The only three types of investments you need to know & Stocks prices Aren’t Always Rational
阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
The beauty of investing is that there is enough room for many participants to succeed. Many investors fail to outperform the average indexes. John Bogle, founder of the Vanguard Group of mutual funds, once observed that nearly 85 percent of active money managers fail to outperform the broad market indexes. Part of this result can be explained by elementary statistics. With a sample size (market participants) so large, it is impossible for everyone to beat the average. For one, investing is a zero - sum game: Someone is buying what you’re selling and selling what you’re buying. When someone is realizing a gain, someone is taking a loss somewhere down the line.
When it comes to stocks, this zero - sum characteristic might not happen immediately. Consider the Internet boom. For years, it seemed that stock prices would only go up. Someone could buy shares in
a dot-com business, sell them after they doubled (or even tripled) in price, and the new buyer would experience the same pleasure. When the euphoria ended, the losses were just as severe on the way down as the joy was on the way up. Buy shares at a $ 100 and sell them at $ 50. The new buyer would see the purchase price halved, and on the cycle went. While some people made out with fortunes, the proportion is very small when compared with the overall participant pool. Make no mistake: There is a winner and a loser on every side of the trade. However, there are scores of successful long - term investors who have found themselves more on the winning side of the transaction. Besides Buffett, these include guys like Bill Miller at Legg Mason who beat the Standard & Poor ’ s (S & P) index for 15 consecutive years; Bruce Berkowitz at the Fairholme Funds; and Mason Hawkins at the Longleaf Funds. Their long - term success rate is a result of more than just mere luck. In 1982, Warren Buffett wrote a wonderful essay titled “The Super Investors of Graham and Doddsville,” where he defended the success of a value investing approach over long periods of time. Rebuttals were posited that Buffett’s performance was a six sigma type of event (an event so rare that it could probabilistically occur only once every 2.5 million days).
Yet all the recent market slumps, including the 1987 stock market crash, the Asian currency crisis, and the Internet bubble, have been six sigma types of events. All have occurred in the past two decades. To those who considered Buffett’s results a six sigma event and that “looking for value [investments] with a significant margin of safety” was an outdated method, Buffett delivered this powerful argument: In this group of successful investors . . . there has been a common intellectual patriarch, Ben Graham. But the children who left the house of this intellectual patriarch have called their “flip” in very different ways. They have gone to different places and bought and sold different stocks and companies, yet they have had a combined record that simply can’t be explained by random chance. Benjamin Graham is considered the father of the value investing approach. His two great works, The Intelligent Investor and Security Analysis created the foundation for investing in businesses that were selling for less than their true value. The general idea behind Graham’s approach was to look at the fundamental, concrete variables in the business, namely profits and cash generation. Find those businesses that were selling in the market for less than total value of the discounted future cash flows and invest in them. Graham defined his approach to investing as “an operation . . . which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.”
阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
As shares buy and sell don’t create actual value it is only a zero sum game that only through you have better price discovery skills that you can have better returns then the others or less loss when the market crash. Value investors look at businesses through a very simple construct. Businesses come in only three flavors: undervalued, overvalued, or fairly valued. Every single business will fall into one of these three buckets. Let me first start with an important caveat. In determining which bucket of valuation a business falls into, we must first be able to value the business. And to be able to value it, we must first understand the business. And to understand a business, we should really know it. Simply reading the annual report is the beginning. In order to understand the business, you should also be familiar with the industry the business operates in, the competitive forces within the industry, and how any external business threats could affect the business going forward. If you can ’ t understand the business, you can ’ t make intelligent assumptions about its future cash flows or anything else that might be meaningful to assessing the value of the business. Realize that you do not need to understand every industry in the business world; it ’ s far better and more rewarding in the long run if you can understand a few industries exceptionally well. Develop a core competency in a few areas, and you will fi nd plenty of opportunities to make money. Buffett’s core competency is the insurance industry; he understands all the ins and outs of the insurance business and has used his expertise to great success. Also remember that Buffett has been investing for over 50 years, so developing an investment acumen does take time and it ’ s an ongoing process. Focus on what you can understand, and read as much as you can. Over time, the competency will develop and serve as building blocks for different investment opportunities. What exactly do I mean when I call a business undervalued, overvalued, or fairly valued? As the goal of investment success hinges on finding discrepancies between market value and business value, it is more precise to refer to an investment as under-priced, over-priced, or fairly priced. An undervalued business is one in which the underlying stock price is under-priced. Why get so technical with the wording? Just because a stock price is cheap does not mean that the underlying business is undervalued. Conversely, an undervalued business does not have to be a cheap stock. When seeking to define value - oriented investments, many academics and professional investors focus on two valuation metrics: the price-to earnings ratio (P/E) and the price-to-book ratio (P/B). The P/E ratio is simply a number that shows the relationship between a stock price and the earnings per share of the business.
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