1、文章链接：https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3481221

2、文章摘录：贷款结构趋于优化，融资需求显著回暖。1月新增人民币贷款3.23万亿，同比多增3300亿，环比多增21500亿。结构上看，非金融企业1月新增贷款2.58万亿，同比多增8000亿元，增量中中长期贷款明显提升，结构较12月显著改善，央行从流动性约束、资本约束和利率约束三方面疏通货币政策传导机制的成效开始显现，在政策的作用下银行风险偏好有所提升。非金融企业企业票据融资5160亿元，同比多增4813亿元。一直以来市场对票据融资存在偏见，认为票据融资高企意味着信贷结构不佳。但实际上票据融资也是满足实体经济融资需求的重要途径，它的增长也代表了实体融资需求的扩张。票据融资一方面可以使银行获得企业保证金，缓解存款压力，另一方面票据具有金额小，期限短的特点，适合中小企业的融资需求，符合政策意图。居民部门1月新增贷款9898亿元，同比多增882亿元，其中中长期贷款增加6969亿元，或与新年贷款额度集中释放后房贷集中放款有关。此外，1月非银金融机构贷款下降3386亿元，同比环比均大幅减少与整体资金面较为宽松有关。
非标逆转萎缩态势，债券融资同比大增。1月社融增量为4.64万亿，同比多增15607亿元，环比多增30502亿元。结构上看，新增贷款3.6万亿，同比多增8895亿，是推动社融大幅超预期的主要因素。非标融资3462亿元，同比多增2284亿元，不再是拖累社融的主要因素。其中委托贷款虽继续减少，但下滑幅度明显收敛；信托贷款微增，或与地产融资政策松动有关；未贴现的银行承兑汇票同比多增2349亿元，表外票据融资明显改善成为推动非标回暖的主要推手。企业债券融资4990亿元，同比多增3768亿元。2019年初利率延续下行趋势，发债成本降低，企业发债意愿上升，叠加民营企业债券融资支持政策不断加码，企业债融资连续3个月快速增长。地方ZF专项债券净融资1088亿元，同比多增1088亿元。中央经济工作会议要求大幅增加地方ZF专项债券发行规模，支持重大在建项目建设和补短板，地方债发行节奏也大幅提前。1月社融大幅增加推动社融存量同比反弹至10.4%，社融增速下滑的趋势得以扭转，宽货币向宽信用的传导开始加快。

3、感悟：最新数据都表明，2019年初国内资金面开始宽松，融资贷款有所增多。但这种增加是宽松政策带来的，还是市场信心回升、经济逐步回暖的表现，还需要进一步的观察，需要时间来验证。2019年国内国际形势仍比较严峻，虽然资金面的宽松带来了好的信号，但大家仍应采取谨慎的态度。

4、昨日阅读：0.5小时。

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看不见的战斗

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FWWTHEBUdcMalBXVnHem9g

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/zeWeuErlJH89l0hMFmfVJg

中国学生进美国高校为何越来越难

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考研党的漫长拉锯战：没有人真正喜欢，只是不得不继续

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/j87ZF-6GYbVtMJUbYHGB-w

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稳定人民币汇率，跨国资本流动和国内资本市场稳定最严峻的挑战在于国内“去杠杆”政策与外部环境不稳定两者叠加，即外部风险及其可能的内部风险的叠加造成的放大效应。

长期以来，中国经济增长具有信贷推动特征。信贷供给不仅维持了GDP的中高速增长，也支撑了资产泡沫，包括房地产泡沫的长期存在。2008年金融危机以后，信贷供给在推动GDP增长方面的边际效应在减弱，但是在过度的信贷中导致中国经济内部各部门杠杆不断上升至危险水平。

截止2017年年底，中国非金融企业部门的杠杆率为160.3%，比2016年6月份时的峰值166.9%下降了6.6%。去杠杆在非金融企业部门不仅实现了杠杆率的稳定，并且实现了平稳下降。但是应该看到，在企业部门降低杠杆率的同时，政府部门和家庭部门的杠杆率仍在上升。截止2017年年底，政府部门的杠杆率为47%；家庭部门的杠杆率达到48%.尤其是家庭部门，其杠杆率出现了自2016年之后加速上升的趋势。

在国内企业和家庭部门负债率出于高位的情况下，国内的去杠杆、金融整顿、加强金融监管和深化金融体制改革本身就容易引发资产价格的过快下跌和金融风险的集中爆发。

同时，我国的跨境资本流动和国际投资头寸的结构特点也会引发国外金融风险的传导以及内外金融风险的叠加。

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昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读429小时  16

苹果“颓势”下的富士康：员工吐槽班车、洗衣福利取消

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/WVcbi0byh5NnTKy_6k_Tug

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昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读112小时, 继续努力。

今日阅读一小时，Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness，20%->24%,累积阅读时间29小时。

昨天阅读2小时，累计阅读487小时。 《宽客人生》作者在撰写博士论文中用到了费曼图（Feynman diagrams），并且借鉴了费曼图的思想，总结出两点自己今后解决问题的原则：<br>
Whenever I have a new problem to work on—in physics or options theory—the first major struggle is to gain some intuition about how to proceed; the second struggle is to transform this intuition into something more formulaic, a set of rules anyone can follow, rules that no longer require the original insight itself. In this way, one person’s breakthrough becomes everybody’s possession.<br>
简单说第一是理清做事步骤，第二是想办法使这些步骤程式化，具体说就是确定一些人人都容易做到的规则。这样后边人不需要从头研究做起，只要照着已有规则就能很容易得到结果。实现了：个人一点突破，人人可以共享。<br>
这就像高明的渔夫不仅可以打鱼还可以发明改进捕鱼工具，并把工具分享给其他人，这样每个人都可以很容易打到更多鱼了。

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读49小时。继续分享《薛兆丰经济学讲义》
人力资本是一种耐用品
我们每个人的人力资本也是耐用品，必须在时间的维度上才能发挥我们的功用。
很多公司现在招人，都要求员工加班。而我们知道，按照规定，加班时间的工资相当于正常工作时间的两倍。假设一家公司非常规范，会如实给员工加班费，这时公司有两个选择：一个是给现有的员工加班费，另一个是多雇一些人两班倒。公司会选哪个？公司会选员工加班。
选择给员工加班费，公司能省很多固定成本，例如工位费、培训费、管理费，只要付一个人的就可以了。因此老板更愿意让员工加班。
但员工为什么愿意加班呢？过去有理论说，工作时间太长人就会异化，会忘掉自己是什么，因而我们应腾出更多的时间，好好充实自己，做一个完整的人。但实际上我们绝大多数人工作时间都超过8小时。原因很简单，因为我们每个人都集聚了大量的人力资本，这些资本是耐用品，而耐用品必须在时间的流逝当中才能兑现。我们不能一口气把它消耗掉，也不能一下子把它兑现。
比如我们读了一个博士学位，我们没办法把这个学位一下子卖掉。把这个学位价值兑现的唯一办法就是时间，因而需要工时，需要讲课、写文章。
一种耐用品，只有在时间的维度上才能体现它的价值，发挥它的功能。这是耐用品的含义。任何一种能够带来收入的资源、本领或者禀赋，都是一种耐用品。
油画是一种耐用品，一棵苹果树是一种耐用品，甚至儿童也是一种耐用品。
儿童也是一种可消费的耐用品
当经济学家加里·贝克尔第一次在演讲中说“儿童是一种可消费的耐用品”时，引起全场哄然大笑。儿童怎么会是消费品和耐用品呢？
事实上，加里·贝克尔的这句话是说，每个家庭生儿育女其实都是理性的决定，生小孩儿实际上是一种长期投资，是投资一个消耗品。小孩儿很可爱，可爱得我们有时巴不得啃他两口，但是我们不能真的把他吃掉，我们只能在时间的流逝当中去爱他、去欣赏他，从中得到快乐。
我的学习：
1、耐，就是跟着时间的维度，耐心是长时间的，耐力也是长时间的，所以都需要时间检验；
2、人是长久的，也是可以看做耐用品的，可以持续创造价值；
3、儿童是一个投资，我很喜欢这个观点，也很认可耐用品，儿童提供的价值，是精神层面的享受。

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读193小时

昨日阅读1小时。 总阅读时间119小时
The business of value investing – Six essential elements to buying companies like Warren Buffett- Charlie Tian 2009
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-695143-1-1.html(Page 54-59)
The Six Elements of Intelligent Investing,
All Investing needs to be  Value Investing
阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
One of the many unique and advantageous aspects of value investing is that the larger the discount from intrinsic value, the greater the margin of safety and the greater the potential return when the stock price moves back to intrinsic value. Contrary to the view of modern portfolio theorists that increased returns can only be achieved by taking greater levels of risk, value investing is predicated on the notion that increased returns are associated with a greater margin of safety.
The key point is that in a situation like this you wouldn’t just buy one property if you had the means to buy more. Seeing the tremendous discount between market price and fair price, you would seize the opportunity to make a substantial investment. But you would also want to seize the opportunity in a sensible manner. You’re not going to lever yourself up to a point where you don’t give yourself ample time for the market to correct and attract buyers. This is your margin of safety in this investment. This is Hawaii, where everyone dreams of owning beachfront property and it is a matter of when, and not if, the values rise back to normal. You should have a similar mindset when investing in businesses via the stock market. If your analysis suggests that a quality business is selling for a bargain price and that sooner or later the price will rise to catch up with value, you should be excited at the opportunity to bet big, as such opportunities (like buying a $ 400,000 beachfront Hawaiian house) are very rare. At the same time, you don’t want to invest with money you don’t have by using funds borrowed on margin. The instant you make slam - dunk investments using proceeds from your broker, the rules of the game have changed. You give up any margin of safety the minute you expose yourself to redemption calls from your broker. Similar to our real estate analogy, it may take many months for the market to agree with your investment analysis, but if you’re forced to sell in the interim in order to satisfy broker demands for the borrowed money, then any short - term fluctuations in the stock price may force you to sell at the absolute worst moment. While investors find value in different places, in my examination
of all investing greats — beginning with the teachings of Ben Graham — I’ve discovered that any successful investing approach rests on a sound fundamental framework, or mindset. Most of us are familiar with the names of successful investors: Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Seth Klarman, Peter Lynch, Mason Hawkins, Eddie Lampert, and Bruce Berkowitz to name just a few. These are some of the most highly regarded and recognized value investors due to their superior long - term performance.
During the early days of stock market activity, investing was commonly perceived as a speculative activity practiced only by the rich or by those with wild dreams of striking it rich. Many of the publicly traded companies at the time were oil companies with nothing more than land and hopes of striking oil and all the riches that came with it. Until Professor Benjamin Graham that investing became a more scientific process that could be understood and applied analytically to producing long-term profits. In 1934, while a professor at Columbia University, Graham co-authored a book with colleague David Dodd titled Security Analysis. Their work provided a blueprint for fundamental analysis of both stocks and bonds. In other words, Graham instructed readers to focus on the business’s assets and liabilities, profits, and cash generation.

阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
Graham often took a pair of common stocks in alphabetical order from the stock tables and analysed them based on earnings multiples, growth rates, and balance sheet composition. Then he would illustrate why one business was a more sensible investment than the other. In  The Intelligent Investor (Graham, 1949), a much shorter yet equally effective text on the practical principles of sound investing. Security Analysis is more for general audience, although the book became much more than that. The core theme of The Intelligent Investor hinged on the distinction between investment and speculation that was provided in Security Analysis: An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative. Notice the three conditions that must exist for an investment: thorough analysis, safety of principal, and an adequate return. I think most investors would agree that satisfying these three conditions is the cornerstone of all investing activity, regardless of what you invest in. Later we shall further discuss why growth investing and value investing are merely two sides of the same coin. Part of the value in any investment is the growth potential of the business. Ben
Graham came along and taught us how to value this future growth and use those principles in paying sensible prices for the stock today. As you will read throughout this book, a major determinant between a successful investment and an unsuccessful investment is the price you pay. Ben Graham’s most famous disciple was Warren Buffett, who today is undeniably considered as the world’s most successful and accomplished investor. Beginning in 1965, when Buffett assumed control of Berkshire Hathaway - at the time a Massachusetts textile business - to 2007, Berkshire Hathaway’s book value per share grew at an annual compounded gain of 21.1 percent. Buffett took the fundamentals that Graham had taught him and adapted them over the years to produce the most successful long - term track record in modern - day investing. Many professional investors who want to follow Graham’s philosophies and teachings look to Warren Buffett and his activities over the past 40 years.

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/bsXMktN5nT_z73KcfTU-Nw

巴菲特

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_jGaNng1srIN2yj5W8H6dA

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