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2月28日
2月最后一天！2019已经过去六分之一了，今天的任务呢？
昨天阅读4小时，累计阅读915小时。
1.今天你阅读到的有价值的全文内容链接
推荐：《宽客：华尔街顶级数量金融大师的另类人生》
      《宽客》是一本讲述华尔街顶级数量金融大师的另类人生的书。2007年金融危机爆发以来，作者采访了大量加州抵押贷款违约业主、对冲基金经理和顶尖经济学及金融学学者，在《华尔街日报》上对危机做了全方位、多角度的报道。本书对华尔街新兴的主宰者“宽客”进行了前所未有的深入描述，其中既有宽客新锐中的佼佼者：穆勒、格里芬、阿斯内斯和魏因斯坦，又有隐士般的吉姆? 西蒙斯，史上最成功对冲基金的创始人阿伦?布朗，以及多位宽客中的异类。这群数学天才就像闯进华尔街糖果店的小孩——他们从华尔街的最底层开始一步步登上最高峰，又造成了一次又一次的市场崩溃。
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-5551774-1-1.html

2.今天你阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
今天开始读：《宽客：华尔街顶级数量金融大师的另类人生》
目录：
人物介绍
中文版序
第1章 从赌博开始
第2章 宽客教父索普
第3章 他们都是疯狂的淘金客
第4章 毛骨悚然的“波动率微笑”
第5章 凶残的法玛食人鱼
第6章 狼就在门口
第7章 金钱也数字化了
第8章 四个火枪手
第9章 “上帝保佑，未来会更好”
第10章 引爆超新星
第11章 丧钟为谁而鸣
第12章 多米诺骨牌倒了
第13章 站在天堂口的恶魔
第14章 暗池，宽客交易的新宠
译者后记

人物介绍
      彼得·穆勒（Peter Muller） 摩根士丹利神秘的内部对冲基金产品开发团队（PDT）经理，他以性格古怪、直言不讳著称。这位数学天才偶尔会以街头艺人的身份在早高峰时段出现在纽约地铁站。2007年，在长期休假后，穆勒带着雄心勃勃的业务和利润扩张计划回到PDT重掌大局。
      肯·格里芬（Ken Griffin） 坚忍不拔的芝加哥对冲基金——大本营投资集团经理。他的公司是世界上最大、最成功的对冲基金公司。在金融危机之前，格里芬花费了8000万美元用于购买艺术品，并在巴黎凡尔赛宫举行婚礼。
      克里夫·阿斯内斯（Cliff Asness） 口无遮拦、脾气火爆的AQR资本管理公司创始人。金融危机前，他的公司资产管理规模近400亿美元。AQR原本已经做好了上市的所有准备，但因危机来袭只好无奈放弃。
      博阿兹·魏因斯坦（Boaz Weinstein） 国际象棋“终身大师”、扑克算牌高手，德意志银行顶尖衍生品交易员。他创立了德意志银行内部的对冲基金——萨巴（Saba,希伯来语“聪明的祖父”之意）。在他的带领下，萨巴成为世界上最强大的信用交易基金，头寸总价值高达300亿美元。
      吉姆·西蒙斯（Jim Simons） 神秘的亿万富翁、文艺复兴科技公司经理。他的公司是史上最成功的对冲基金，其投资手法一直带有浓厚的神秘色彩。文艺复兴科技公司由一群科学家组成，大部分人以前是密码分析专家和计算机语音识别专家。
      爱德华·索普（Edward Thorp） 是最早的一批宽客之一，被誉为“宽客教父”。他是20世纪50年代特立独行的数学教授，他开发出一套“21点必杀技”，将赌博技巧与投资联系起来，不久以后又运用这些技巧在华尔街攫取了百万美元的利润。
      阿伦·布朗（Aaron Brown） 使用数学技巧在“说谎者的扑克牌”游戏中颠覆了华尔街的旧秩序。职业上的便利使他很早便发现了抵押贷款证券的爆炸式增长，这在当时还尚未引起重视。
      保罗·威尔莫特（Paul Wilmott） 宽客中的另类大师，牛津大学金融数学项目创始人。2000年，威尔莫特就警告说数学家将导致市场崩溃。
      贝努瓦·曼德尔布罗特（Benoit Mandelbrot） 数学家，从20世纪60年代就开始警告量化模型所面临的“黑天鹅”威胁——但这很快就被战无不胜、所向披靡的宽客们忘得一干二净。

中文版序
      本书讲述了一场以可怕的失败告终的资本市场实验。在20世纪90年代和21世纪的第一个十年里，买卖、包装复杂证券的技术风靡美国和欧洲。人们坚信数学和计算机可以保护投资者免受不利事件的冲击，但事实证明，人们被引入了歧途。这一次信念蒙蔽了专家的眼睛，让他们对所承担的真实风险视而不见。
      本书也描述了金融创新以及新崛起的势力：数学和计算机专家是如何扩展市场、增加市场稳定性，从而为更多的人带去财富和荣华富贵的。量化投资如果应用得当，通常可以令市场更有效、更健康。
      总而言之，这是一场平衡游戏。量化投资也许是世界上最给力、最成功的投资方法，但也可以导致可怕的错误，滋生灾难性的自满。宽客必须意识到，世界并不总是风平浪静的，人类情绪可以造成他们始料未及的市场动荡。
      在未来几年中，中国必将在量化投资领域占据一席之地。上海和其他地方的市场已逐渐开放。这一策略值得鼓励，但永远不要忘了，市场终究是由人组成的，因此也就无法摆脱人性固有的缺陷。
      祝读者们在新的冒险中好运！谢谢！
……

3.今天你阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
         从今天开始阅读这本《宽客：华尔街顶级数量金融大师的另类人生》。
       14章，每两天一章，正好一个月。都是大师级的数量金融高手。令人激动和向往的阅读。中文版序中提到“本书讲述了一场以可怕的失败告终的资本市场实验”的确是一场资本市场实验，只是是否是失败是一个见仁见智的判断。
       大师的名单已经开列在上面的人物介绍中了。九个人物中，仅有西蒙斯的名字和他的文艺复兴科技公司还算是看到或者听到过，其他都是第一次看到：我离宽客的距离有多远？九分之八点五！
      概率论若从起因上论的话，本身就是数学家为了研究赌场的赌局胜率而不断进行计算和探索的结果。所以将其应用于迅速变化的交易市场中是自然而然的。实际中最早在股市交易过程中，就有这样的应用，只是因为受到信息传输技术的影响而无法为更多的人所掌握和应用。随着IT技术的发展，我们的社会已经经历了打孔纸带，PC，互联网，移动互联，智能终端这样多次的技术革命，今天每个人都可以非常方便而快捷地获得如此强大的计算能力，而且付出的代价很小。那么，交易市场本身的变化就是势不可挡的。2013年时，似乎1夜之间，股票交易大厅就从街面消失了。而交易市场的规模也随之发展扩大了若干倍。
      机会，似乎遍地都是机会，这样的时代机会成就了什么样的大师呢，他们是怎么样引领趋势的发展的呢？我们先读起来！
……

单词挑战第3月第13天
Bubble   n.  泡，水泡; 冒泡，起泡; 泡影，妄想; （欲表达的）一点感情;
vt.& vi.  起泡，使冒气泡;
vi.  使冒泡，发出冒泡的声音; 洋溢着（某种感情）; 滔滔不绝地讲; 兴奋，欢闹;
As she spoke she felt a bubble of optimism rising inside her.
The South Sea Bubble

1.背单词1个 - O
2.飞鸟式36个 - O
3.Code Practices 0.5 hr - X
4.论坛收集资料30分钟*3 - O
5.Cloud Zhuang45minutes - O

昨日读0.5小时  累计 180小时  

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昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读16小时

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/PRBBG2u-EqVN7fm2j_5MzQ

简历

从等待王子到寻找自我：迪士尼是如何治愈“公主病”的？

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/sfzxZvMeqsp7A81xTj7Wzg

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读1182小时

昨日阅读0.5小时，累计阅读264.5小时

圣光下的欧司朗阴影：西门子弃子、丧失核心业务和被收购的命运

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/EWchKxVmlsJAvh6Tq6Vcag

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读4小时

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读138小时。阅读《我国生态文明建设的科学基础与路径选择》，继续关注生态环境污染和破坏引发的健康风险，当然主要是癌症村的问题。为了研究这个问题，已经关注了好几年，也买了好几本癌症调查方面的资料。一般认为，癌症的发生是一种宿主与环境之间复杂的、动态的相互作用过程。重要的宿主因素包括遗传构成和健康状况，而主要的环境因素包括食物、环境污染物、职业和生活方式(如饮食习惯和吸烟等) 。有研究表明，在发达国家，30%的癌症是由于饮食或营养，16%烟草，8%感染，5%职业暴露，2%环境污染，39%其他原因。如果把烟草也归于饮食的话，直接间接由引导导致的癌症比率就达到46%，将近一半了。再看看号称世界第一癌症村的宣威市来宾镇的虎头村、高家村、冷家村吧，村民癌症发病率达到6.5％，其中大部分都是肺癌，发病率是世界平均水平的近千倍，近年来患病人数逐年上升，患病年龄下降，有的癌患病人仅只几岁。1970年代开始世界卫生组织、欧美国家（民间）卫生机构以及国家卫生部等各种组织先后多次到宣威进行实地调查，希望能够发现和揭示癌症形成的原因，并最终攻克这一世界难题，造福人类。半个世纪过去了，一切依旧，来宾镇的村民仍然存活在对癌症的恐惧和绝望中，有所变化的只是空气越来越差、山越来越秃、水越来越脏、耕地越来越荒芜、人的寿命越来越短。外国组织和机构对宣威癌症村的调查结论至今国人不得而知。国内官方说法是“村民的饮食习惯不好、室内烧煤、吸烟”等等。这个说法不由让人产生一个疑问：为什么同处于宣威坝子其他方向的村庄，在生活习惯相同的情况下，癌症的发病率却远远低于来宾镇呢？根据已有的调查情况来看宣威“世界第一癌症村”形成的原因并不复杂，罪魁祸首就是——宣威火电厂各种污染物排放。很多人也许会对这个结论嗤之以鼻，那么我就来说一说做出这种判断的理由吧。宣威火电厂1958开建，1960年投入使用，至今已有50多年历史。火电厂投产后历经7次改扩建，现在的总装机容量达到了60万千瓦，是云南省第二大火力发电企业。在1958年以前来宾镇的癌症发病率并没有文字方面的记录，从当地多位幸存的老人那里得知，火电厂建成前来宾镇村民的平均寿命虽然不算太高，但与宣威其他村镇的村民相差不多，印象里面直接死于类似癌症疾病的人非常少，直到上世纪60年代中期当地癌症的发病率才开始节节攀升。宣威坝子呈南北走向，来宾镇位于宣威坝子北端下风口处，而火电厂位于宣威坝子南端上风口处，每年的大多数时间里风都是从南向北吹。火电厂6只大烟囱向天空吐着滚滚浓烟，随风而来的各种污染物沉降到地面正好是下风口人口稠密的来宾镇。与此相反方向的宣威坝子南端河东、朱屯、大屯等村庄由于没受到火电厂排放物的危害，其癌症发病率就远远低于北端的虎头、宗范、左所、所乐、观营、后亏、普昌、龙洞等地。交叉对比宣威坝子南北两端人口肺癌发病率实际已经可以得出科学、正确的结论了。

昨日阅读1小时。 总阅读时间129小时
The business of value investing – Six essential elements to buying companies like Warren Buffett- Charlie Tian 2009
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-695143-1-1.html (Page 135-143)
Company Executive compensation and performance
阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
The debate regarding executive compensation is one without conclusion. At one end of the spectrum you have Warren Buffett, who continues to earn the same $ 100,000 annual salary he has been getting for decades without any bonuses or stock options. On the other end, we have Steve Jobs of Apple computer, who took home over $646 million in 2007, the vast majority of which came in the form of vested stock options. We won’t see shareholders in Apple Computer complaining, however. In 2007, shares in Apple appreciated by over 120 percent, according to the Value Line Investment Survey .For purposes of assessing the quality of management, executive compensation should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis. There is no magic formula or percentage to aid investors in this task. A business like frame of mind is the most valuable tool in tackling the appropriateness of executive compensation for each company. With the exception of extreme outlier scenarios, the appropriateness of executive compensation for any business will differ from investor to investor. The key for the value-oriented investor is to consider the compensation in the context of the overall value created in the business. In most cases, a company’s board of directors will ensure that an adequately qualified candidate is running the company. Often a simple reading of the annual proxy filing will give you a good idea. If the current CEO was once CEO of another company that did exceptionally well under his or her tenure, all the better. The main reason to investigate here is to catch any red flags that may surface. For instance if a pharmaceutical company has a CEO who used to work in the fashion industry, you might want to dig a little deeper. Most times, any concern arises from recent management changes. If a CEO has been in charge for many years, there’s usually a good reason for that.
It’s not fair to judge newly appointed management unless he has been in charge for at least four years, enough time for the market to react to the true fundamentals of the business. In valuing management, many investors mistakenly focus on the performance of the stock price as the proxy for quality management. In the long run, if the fundamental operating metrics of a company have improved, management usually will pass the stock price performance test. Ben Graham explained this as being due to the fact that markets are voting machines in the short run but weighing machines in the long run. While stock price performance ultimately matters, it’s important for investors to rate management more on the things they can control. For instance, when evaluating oil companies, if the underlying price of a barrel of oil is increasing, most oil companies’ stock prices will rise in response. In such instances, managements across the entire industry will appear to have done an excellent operating job when, in fact, the price of oil, an uncontrollable item, was responsible for the increased value. Management has no control over the price of oil, but it does have control over exploration costs, an excellent barometer of long - term value creation or destruction. In the short run, focusing on stock price performance can hide management’s true operating skill. In evaluating the quality of management, focus on the variables that management can control. Concentrate on the operational efficiency of the business: in other words, how the money is being spent. In trade terms, this commonly is referred to as capital allocation. Discover a great capital allocator and you will have discovered a great manager. Good capital allocation can be judged by two controllable variables within a business: book value per share and return on invested capital.

阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
Management has no control over the value of the stock price; it does have complete control over the assets of the business and hence the change in book value each and every year. The Book value is the net worth of a business. It’s equal to a company’s assets minus all its liabilities. Great managers focus on increasing book value each and every year. There’s nothing more obvious than the value created from increasing the per share book value of a business and also the return on investment. If a company’s per share book value is higher than it was the previous year, then value was created. Naturally, long-term annual growth in per share book value is more indicative of superior operating performance. Since Warren Buffett began writing the Berkshire Hathaway letter to shareholders, he begins each one in this way: Our gain in net worth in 2007 was . . . which increased the per share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock by 11%.
Over the last 43 years (that is, since present management took over) book value has grown . . . [at] a rate of 21.1% compounded annually. By starting each annual letter this way, Buffett is defining the ultimate yardstick that should be used to grade management: the performance of book value per share. Book value per share is affected by changes in three categories: a change in assets, a change in liabilities, or a change in the number of shares outstanding. All three factors are at the complete discretion of management. While stock price performance and book value performance might not behave similarly in the short run, a long - term pattern of increasing book value ultimately will be followed by a similar performance from the stock price. Great Managers Focus on Return on Invested Capital Value creation is simple to understand in the context of a business. If the business is investing its capital in projects that generate rates of return that exceed the cost of that capital, value is being created. It’s no good if a company is earning 8 percent on its invested capital if the cost of capital is 10 percent. A common definition for return on invested capital (ROIC) is the net after - tax operating profit divided by invested capital. Operating income, or operating revenue minus operating expense, is the purest form of judging a business’s results. Operating income strips out nonrecurring items and interest costs, which (excluding those of financial service firms) don’t have much to do with the actual business itself. The formula for the return is:
(1 – tax rate)*(earning before interest and taxes)
Invested capital (IC), as you would imagine, measures how much capital a company has invested in its business. Although there are many different ways of measuring IC, a generally sound way of calculating is:
(total assets – cash) – (noninterest-bearing current liabilities)
Basically, this equation says that the capital invested is the sum of all the assets, and subtracts out the assets that haven’t yet been invested (cash and cash equivalents). Noninterest - bearing current liabilities are also subtracted out because they represent “interest-free” loans. For example, if you own a shoe store and a supplier extends you credit to buy and sell its shoes, no capital was dispensed to get the use of the assets (the shoes), so this doesn’t go into the IC equation. What we’re left with is the total invested capital. Many different investors have subtle differences in the way they calculate ROIC, but the general idea of what you are after is the same: the return a business generates relative to the capital deployed to get that return. When the return on capital is greater than the cost of capital — usually measured as the weighted average cost of capital- the company is creating value; when it is less than the cost of capital, value is destroyed. Capital comes in two forms, debt and equity. Calculating the cost of debt is relatively simple, as it is comprised of the rate of interest paid on the debt. The cost of equity is a bit more complicated, as equity typically does not pay a return to its investors. In specific cases-such as real estate investment trusts and energy master limited partnerships — the high dividend yield can represent an accurate cost of equity, but in general, calculating the cost of equity is not as clear cut as calculating the cost of debt. Modern finance theory uses the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to determine the cost of equity. Under the assumptions of CAPM, inputs such a stock’s beta (or volatility) are used to determine the cost of equity capital. Because value investors often disregard beta as an inappropriate measure of risk, the CAPM model is flawed. The cost of equity should merely reflect the sum of the risk free rate of return and an equity risk premium. Similar to the discount rate, the equity risk premium will vary depending on the company in question. Wal-Mart’s cost of equity, and hence its equity risk premium, will be a lot less than the cost of equity for Ford Motor Company.  When a company has no debt, the return on equity (ROE) can be just as meaningful as ROIC. In the next section, we see how an understanding of this concept helped create one of the world’s most successful companies.

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文侯谓李克曰：「先生尝有言曰：『家贫思良妻；国乱思良相。』今所置非成则璜，二子何如？」对曰：「卑不谋尊，疏不谋戚。臣在阙门之外，不敢当命。」文侯曰：「先生临事勿让！」克曰：「君弗察故也。居视其所亲，富视其所与，达视其所举，穷视其所不为，贫视其所不取，五者足以定之矣，何待克哉！」文侯曰：「先生就舍，吾之相定矣。」

学习1小时，累计56.5小时

TED 择一城终老，遇一人白首
https://open.163.com/movie/2015/7/O/0/MAU9UMSJE_MAU9V5VO0.html

爱情和婚姻算不算是一个古老的话题？我想不算吧，爱情与婚姻的存在历史久远，但现代人更探讨这个。
演讲者是完成这次photography project 的一对朋友，他们之间没有爱情，却在见证爱情，拍摄爱情。
在众多的爱情故事里，我感触最深的是太阳城里一对第二次婚姻结合在一起的老夫妇，他们结合已经有三十多年了。而在相遇之后，女子了解了男子的很多缺点，酗酒，欠ZF钱，甚至在结婚后的一次醉酒中丈夫扬言要杀掉妻子和她的二个孩子，即便是招来了警察，这位妻子仍然相信丈夫，而后来丈夫为了她去了借酒所，从此后的三十六年再也没有喝过一滴酒。
其实，在众多的故事中，他们没有一个是开始于一个罗曼蒂克的或者说是有趣的开始，但这些老夫妻却彼此相伴一生，并将继续的走下去，现代人们不断的提出各种爱情保鲜法，婚姻保卫法，难道添加了各种技巧和理论的婚姻关系就一定会长久下去么，那又如何总结老一辈那种很多始于无爱的婚姻呢？他们对婚姻的韧性和忍性，是缔造了爱情还是在维系了习惯？在这个问题上每个人都有自己的期许吧。

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昨日阅读1小时，2019年累计阅读60小时。3月阅读《现场改善》吧
今天就开始分享
公司里的每个人都必须一起努力，遵循现场改善三个最基本的法则：
·环境维持
·浪费消除
·标准化
环境维持是优秀管理不可或缺的一部分。通过良好的环境维持，员工获得了对自律的理解，并通过反复实践加强理解；而没有自律的员工，则不可能给客户提供高品质的产品或服务。
在日语里，"muda"一词的含义是浪费。任何不能创造附加价值的活动都是浪费。现场的人要么创造附加价值，要么不创造。这一点也适用于任何其他的资源，如机器设备和物料等。假设一家公司的员工每创造一分附加价值的同时，“创造”了九分浪费，那么通过将浪费减少到八分，将创造的附加价值提高到两分，就可以使他们的生产率加倍。浪费消除可谓提高生产率和削减运营成本最为经济有效的办法。改善强调消除现场的浪费，更甚于为了创造附加价值而增加投资。
一个简单的例子能揭示改善在成本方面的益处。假设一名从事家用电器产品装配工作的操作员站立在自己的工位前，将某种零部件装配到主体产品上，被装配的零部件被放置于操作员后面的一个大的容器里，为此，转身拿取零部件的动作会花操作员5秒的时间，而实际的装配时间只不过2秒。
现在让我们假设零部件被放置在操作员面前。操作员只需要简单地向前伸出手臂拿取零件，这个动作只需花1秒。操作员可以用节省下来的时间专注于（创造附加价值的）装配工作。于是，在零件放置地点方面的一个简单改变（消除了向身后伸手的动作浪费）就能取得4秒的收益，并进而可以转变成为3倍的生产率提升。
我理解的内容：
1、现场：所有业务发展的地方都可以是现场。现场的范围很广，小到一个几人的办公室，大到一个厂区都可以去现场
2、改善的含义：不是颠覆性的，是在原有基础上，看有什么东西可以完善，变得更好一些；
3、标准化是基础工作，希望现场改善的前提都必须工作标准化，混乱的秩序，是做不好细节的工作的。

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今日阅读一小时，Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness，48%->50%,累积阅读时间40小时。

5G芯片大战开启：为何华为等国产力量能从巨头环伺中突围？

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/n16E0_ESwzmMm5dkdrbmrQ

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昨天继续学习了经济学中收入分配问题，“收入分配”（distribution of income）是指流向富人、中层人士和穷人的金钱，那些收入最高的人，其收入远远超过了其他人，拉高了平均收入的水平，这意味着人口中大部分人的收入都不能达到平均值。统计学家用一句术语总结你所看到的现象：他们认为社会的收入分配是“偏斜的”（skewed）。经济学家称之为不平等。在美国21世纪的头10年里，最富裕人群收入的快速增长，法国经济学家托马斯·皮凯蒂（Thomas Piketty）在2014年出版了一本书，名叫《21世纪资本论》，书中检视了富人的崛起，并对他们远远甩开其他人的财富增长速度表达了担忧。传统经济学有一个更平实的说法。问题在于工资，即大部分人的收入来源，是由什么所决定的？传统经济学认为，工人根据自身对生产的贡献获得收入。受过教育的人拥有技能，生产能力更强，因此收入更多。在过去的几十年里，技术的演进加强了这个效果：那些受过计算机编程和设计培训的人能够获得更好的收入。没有技术的工人例如汉堡店员工和清洁工被甩在身后。皮凯蒂认为，事情并没有如此简单。他说，那些拥有巨额收入的人并不是因为他们有超高的生产能力。皮凯蒂发现了资产增长的原因，他称之为“资本主义的历史规律”（historical law of capitalism）。人们利用自己的财富赚钱，皮凯蒂发现，在历史上的大部分时间里，财富的报酬率都超过了经济增长的速度。工人的工资根据经济的产出情况支付，当经济生产力提升的时候上涨。由于财富报酬率的速度超过了经济增速，工人的工资并不能以富人的报酬率速度增长。经济学家受到批评，说他们没有在收入分配问题上采取强硬的立场。一些经济学家认为，一个少部分人比其他大多数人富有的富裕社会，比一个人人平等但所有人都吃不饱的贫穷社会要好。现代经济学的许多内容都是关于效率的，而不是分配。政府真正能够实现重新分配的手段只有对富人征税，然后分给穷人。但是经济学家担心过多的赋税会影响人们的行为：如果自己的收入会被征税，为什么还要努力工作？经济学家所说的是公平和效率之间的平衡。英国经济学家安东尼·阿特金森（Anthony Atkinson）说市场往往是从不那么有效率出发，比如，当人们缺乏重要信息时，市场就不是有效率的。阿特金森认为，一个较高的最低工资可以减少不平等，并增加效率。阿特金森认为通过加快经济发展，超过财富的报酬率，可以解决不平等问题，对此皮凯蒂并不认可。他的建议是降低财富报酬率，对全世界最富裕的人群征收全球税。

继续学习 Coulter的管理学，
The external environment includes those factors and forces outside the organization
that affect its performance. The main components include economic, demographic,
political/legal, sociocultural, technological, and global. Managers face constraints
and challenges from these components because of the impact they have on jobs and
employment, environmental uncertainty, and stakeholder relationships.
管理者面临的组织外部挑战，主要包括经济大环境，人口发展模式， 政治法律环境的变化，社会文化，技术和全球化变化
带来的挑战，这些因素会影响工作职位，雇佣环境，环境的不确定性，和各种相关者利益的变化
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《思想的力量：哲学导论》
420. 约翰-斯图亚特-穆勒（历史上的天才人物--智商奇高）
他的《逻辑体系》（System of Logic, 1843）代表了通向逻辑、抽象概念、心理学、社会学和伦理学的经验主义路径。其归纳法仍旧是标准的范本。
其与哈丽特-泰勒的爱情故事很壮美。
穆勒的《自传》（Autobiography）出版于他逝世的那一年。被广为阅读。至今，穆勒依旧是他那个世纪最为著名的英国哲学家。

421. 哈丽特-泰勒（Harriet  Taylor，1807-1858），女性哲学家，诗人，造诣深厚的思想家。其兴趣既在于全面的社会改造，也在于特定的法律变革。
对英国社会的发展趋向，投入了极大关注。
约翰-斯图亚特-穆勒（John stuart Mill，1806-1873）对自由问题颇为关注，一位功利主义者，相信快乐不仅仅是善的，快乐就是善本身，是一切行为和欲望的最终目标。（功利主义者不是利己主义者）他认为，普遍幸福就是团体中的每个个人的幸福的总和。

422. Plato说过，当一个人领略过知识的真谛以后，他宁愿做贫穷的主人的奴隶，也不会愿意成为无知的人。这种思想与穆勒的观点类似。

423. 著名的德国诗人亨利希-海涅（Heinrich Heine）曾经在柏林听过黑格尔的讲座，他写道：当时我是年轻而自负的；黑格尔说亲爱的上帝并非像我的老祖母所说的那样在天堂，我自己就是上帝在人间的化身，这个思想极大地满足了我的虚荣心。
黑格尔复苏了一个古希腊的思想（不是Plato所认同的思想），即对于个人来说，只有名誉才是不朽的

黑格尔继承的是斯宾诺莎把上帝等同于自然（Natura sive deus，即自然与上帝同一）的思想。他曾说，在斯宾诺莎之后，一切哲学都将是斯宾诺莎主义。



==================================
Blockchain:

Decentralization Versus Distributed Systems
One of the biggest misconceptions in the blockchain space is between distributed systems and decentralized systems. In this chapter, we are going to discuss both types of systems, why they matter, their similarities, their differences, and how blockchain technology can fit into both categories.
By the end of this chapter, you should be able to do the following:

• Define a distributed system
• Define a decentralized system
• Understand the benefits and drawbacks of distributed systems
• Understand the benefits and drawbacks of decentralized systems
  

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Django: Mazznine continued 5pages

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the poisonous arrow shot in the heel of Achilles
stuff and nonsense   胡说八道

snippet  == a small piece or brief extract   / fragment / morsel / particle / piece / scrap  

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In small open economy, the exchange rate pass-through has a considerable effect on inflation and output fluctuations. The exchange rate transmits the impact of any shock on the economy through its effect on import prices and relative prices. Under this circumstance, exchange rate channel plays a role as either shock absorber or amplifier in implementing the monetary policy, but how much it can absorb (or amplify) depends on the exchange rate pass-through. Therefore, the exchange rate pass-through is an important consideration with respect to the effectiveness of monetary policy.

New Open Economy Macroeconomics has developed strongly since the mid of 1990s. In this strand, studies of Clarida, Gali and Gertler (1999, 2001), Obstfeld and Rogoff (2002), Gali and Monacelli (2005), Woodford (2003), Benigno and Benigno (2003) are pioneering works that contributed the development of small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model applied to the analysis of monetary policy. In these models, they assume that exchange rate pass-through is complete, implying that LOP holds continually.

However, many empirical studies such as Rogoff (1996), Goldberg and Knetter (1997) and Campa and Goldberg (2002, 2005) showed that the exchange rate pass-through is incomplete for developing and developed countries such as OECD, US, and Asian countries. Therefore, many authors such as Monacelli (2005), Adolfson (2001, 2007), Smets and Wouters (2002), Corsetti and Pesenti (2005), and Sutherland (2005) argued that introducing incomplete pass-through creates the important implications for designing of monetary policy. Overall they accepted that the exchange rate volatility and the degree of pass-through are key parameters in the design of optimal monetary policy.

Determinants of pass-through to prices: Macro vs Micro

Macro: Taylor (2000) argues that the inflation environment is an important macroeconomic determinant of pass-through. Lower inflation is associated with lower persistant of inflation and that persistence in cost changes is related to price stability. In a more stable inflationary environment, exchange rate shocks may be perceived as temporary, which encourages firms to absorb exchange rate fluctuations in their profit margins (e.g., Goldfajn and Werlang, 2000).

The exchange rate regime may be another determinant of exchange rate pass-through. In general, the pass-through is lower in countries with flexible exchange rate regimes that in fixed exchange rate regimes (Krugman, 1989). In fixed regime, when exchange rate changes, they are considered as permanent whih leads firms adjust selling prices rapidly. On the other side, in flexible regimes, exchange rate changes are considered as temporary.

Exchange rate volatility is another factor. Countries that has stable monetary policy would have their currencies chosen for transaction invoicing, i.e., local currency pricing (LCP); this leads to a lower exchange rate pass-through. The relationship between exchange rate volatility and exchange rate pass-through is expected positive (e.g., Ghosh and Rajan, 2009). However, Froot and Klemperer (1989) consider that the volatility of exchange rate is temporary, then when
firms try to maintain local market share, they will adapt their markups and high volatility is associated with a lower pass-through. In this light, we see the relationship between exchange rate volatility and exchange rate pass-through is ambiguous.

Exchange rate pass-through would be higher when the economy is booming than in periods of recession (e.g., Monteiro and Wu, 2000).