阳光在浪尖跳动 发表于 2015-3-4 15:57 
我觉得可以,但是滞后为5,有点牵强的感觉。我做的基本是2,3阶滞后。
那你看一下这个结果 算是稳定吗
DF-GLS for D2 Number of obs = 9
Maxlag = 7 chosen by Schwert criterion
DF-GLS tau 1% Critical 5% Critical 10% Critical
[lags] Test Statistic Value Value Value
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7 -0.408 -3.770 -7.782 -5.617
6 -1.018 -3.770 -5.328 -3.779
5 -5.702 -3.770 -3.828 -2.701
4 -2.935 -3.770 -3.080 -2.217
3 -1.917 -3.770 -2.882 -2.159
2 -1.415 -3.770 -3.032 -2.361
1 -1.803 -3.770 -3.326 -2.655
Opt Lag (Ng-Perron seq t) = 5 with RMSE .0129735
Min SC = -7.224884 at lag 5 with RMSE .0129735
Min MAIC = -4.681414 at lag 2 with RMSE .0477059