【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月中国汽车行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：57
        【目录或简介】：
Key items this month
• What is changing? We analyze: (1) The positive impact of the Chinese
government’s extension of financial subsidy for replacing old vehicles
with new ones; the sharp rise in the China auto sector profitability due to
an increase in operating leverage; the accrual of dual benefit of
preferential vehicle purchase tax and the financial subsidy to the Chinese
consumer; (2) the 4Q FY09 earnings preview and the positive1Q FY10
outlook for the Korean auto sector; (3) the auto production capacity
expansion plan in India by global OEMs in 2010; (4) the unexpected
strong December auto sales in Taiwan, as potential buyers brought
forward their purchase of cars before the end of the government’s
financial subsidy program in 2009; and (5) the positive impact of the 2-
3% increase in car prices by Astra in Indonesia.
• Information: We discuss: (1) The sharp rise in Great Wall Motor’s sales
volume in China, driven by substantial growth in sedan sales and an
increase in pick-up truck sales; (2) Hyundai Motor’s plan to make its
India plant a global hub for compact vehicles; (3) the new small car
launches by global OEMs at the Indian Auto Expo 2010; (4) the drop in
January 1-20, 2010 auto sales in Taiwan after the end of government
subsidy; (5) the (in)effectiveness of the Japan subsidy program.
• Non-consensus calls: (1) We turned negative on the China heavy truck
sector, given: (a) the rising tightening risks in China; (b) the sector’s
stretched asset-based valuations—well above the historical average
levels; (c) peak cycle earnings expectations in FY10; and (d) the sector
de-rating pressure from China’s sizeable railway expansion plan. (2) Our
overall Taiwan auto sales forecast for 2010 is around 15% above
consensus, based on: (a) increase in promotions by auto makers; (b) new
model launches; and (c) Taiwan’s improving macroeconomic outlook.