【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月中国汽车行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：34
        【目录或简介】：
Earnings estimates and PT revisions. We recently raised our FY10
auto sales forecast by 12% to 15.13 million to factor in the Chinese
government’s recently-voiced commitment to boost domestic
consumption, and the robust disposable income growth in China’s tierthree
cities. Meanwhile, we raise our earnings forecast for Brilliance,
Denway, DongFeng, Great Wall and Minth by 17%, 24%, 4%, 18%
and 23% for FY10E, and 14%, 25%, 5%, 13%, and 26% for FY11E,
respectively, to mainly factor in higher sales volume and margin
assumptions. Accordingly, we raise our June FY09 PTs for Brilliance,
Denway, DongFeng, Great Wall and Minth from HK$1.8, HK3.85,
HK$13, HK$8.8, and HK$8 to HK$2.8, HK$5.5, HK$14.1, HK$9.1,
and HK$10.3, respectively.
• Focusing on company-specific strengths or drivers in FY10: We
switch from a positive stance on China autos early this year to a
Neutral stance following their strong performance this year, and
recommend investors to focus on those which have company-specific
strengths or drivers. Our top pick for FY10E remains DongFeng with a
track record of consistently growing core earnings in both the upturn
and downturn of the cycle. We also like Brilliance as a restructuring
play to benefit from the great growth potential of its BMW JV. We
upgrade our rating on Denway from UW to Neutral, mainly to reflect
the far stronger-than-expected demand in China’s car market, which
benefits auto producers with excess capacity. We maintain Neutral on
Great Wall and Minth due to their small liquidity, relatively rich
valuations, and their exposure to the export market.
• Investment risks include: (1) the impact of the negative wealth effect
to rise from the possible volatilities in China’s stock and property
markets on China’s car sales; (2) the possible new auto IPOs in FY10;
and (3) foreign OEMs such as Shanghai GM and DongFeng Nissan are
expected to come up with competitively-priced compact cars to
compete head-on with local-branded vehicle producers in FY10.