【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月中国汽车行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：35
        【目录或简介】：

Chinese passenger vehicle sector’s demand and supply are in good
balance this year. Our FY10 estimate for China’s passenger vehicle
demand as a percentage of the total supply, based on the combined
production targets of all Chinese passenger vehicle producers, is at a
high level of 93.8%. (2) We see some oversupply risks in China’s
small-car segment, which is dominated by China’s local branded
vehicle producers due to their aggressive capacity expansions. (3)
China’s passenger vehicle market could see some oversupply risk in
FY11. We believe China’s passenger vehicle demand as a percentage
of the total supply ratio may decline from 93.8% in FY10 to 85% in
FY11. (4) Rhe risk of Chinese autos suffering from serious oversupply
similar to that seen during the downturn in FY04/FY05, is low in our
view, because the government is now far more stringent on the auto
sector’s capacity expansions than it was in 2004/2005.
• We maintain our positive view on China autos’ FY10 profitability,
and medium-term growth prospects: (1) China auto firms should see
significant growth in FY10 with higher profitability due to the strong
sales growth and the high operating leverage. (2) China’s passenger
vehicle sector represents a good medium-term secular growth story due
to the low penetration rate, and the rising disposable income.
• We turn cautious on China’s passenger vehicle sector vs. our
earlier bullish stance, and downgrade DongFeng, Brilliance, and
Great Wall from OW to Neutral because of the sector’s relatively rich
valuations after the strong performance in FY09, and the sector’s rising
oversupply risks for FY11. We remove DongFeng Motor from our
Asia Analysts’ Focus List, and reduce our Dec-10 price target from
HK$15 to HK$13.8, based on a 10% discount to our DCF value of
HK$15.32, translating into 13x FY10E P/E. We decrease our Dec-10
price target for Great Wall Motor from HK$17.1 to HK$15.6, based on
a 20% discount to our DCF value of HK$19.6 per share, translating
into 10x FY10E P/E. We maintain our Dec-10 price target for
Brilliance at HK$2.8, based on 2x FY10E P/BV, translating into 17x
FY10E P/E. We set a higher multiple for Brilliance because of the
perceived stronger earnings growth potential due to the expected closer
co-operation with BMW.

Table of Contents
China autos recorded sharp multiple growth in FY09 .................................................3
China’s car market in good balance this year, but we could see rising oversupply
risks next year ..............................................................................................................4
We maintain our positive view on China autos' FY10 and medium-term growth
prospects 10
We turn cautious on China’s passenger vehicle sector compared to our earlier bullish
stance .........................................................................................................................15
Companies
Brilliance China Automotive .....................................................................................18
DongFeng Motor Co., Ltd. ........................................................................................21
Great Wall Motor Company Limited.........................................................................26