我在生成回归结果的时候发现DW值不好,存在一阶自相关,结果如下:
Dependent Variable: CU
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/05/11 Time: 14:32
Sample: 2008M01 2010M09
Included observations: 33
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 5.751958 0.279970 20.54490 0.0000
FER -8.31E-05 1.35E-05 -6.180043 0.0000
LNIBOR 0.047977 0.021766 2.204173 0.0359
M2 2.45E-06 4.61E-07 5.311386 0.0000
SDR 0.141003 0.023975 5.881261 0.0000
R-squared 0.841455 Mean dependent var 6.867064
Adjusted R-squared 0.818806 S.D. dependent var 0.106756
S.E. of regression 0.045443 Akaike info criterion -3.205996
Sum squared resid 0.057821 Schwarz criterion -2.979252
Log likelihood 57.89893 Hannan-Quinn criter. -3.129704
F-statistic 37.15146 Durbin-Watson stat 0.666644
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
但是在做LM检验的时候发现所有的解释变量都不显著,也就是没有通过显著性检验,不存在一阶自相关
F-statistic 13.48331 Prob. F(1,27) 0.0010
Obs*R-squared 10.99093 Prob. Chi-Square(1) 0.0009
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/05/11 Time: 22:11
Sample: 2008M01 2010M09
Included observations: 33
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0.036651 0.233051 0.157266 0.8762
FER 9.54E-06 1.15E-05 0.830757 0.4134
LNIBOR -0.003528 0.018128 -0.194629 0.8471
M2 -3.42E-07 3.94E-07 -0.866464 0.3939
SDR -0.004681 0.019979 -0.234273 0.8165
RESID(-1) 0.597826 0.162808 3.671962 0.0010
R-squared 0.333058 Mean dependent var 1.28E-16
Adjusted R-squared 0.209551 S.D. dependent var 0.042508
S.E. of regression 0.037793 Akaike info criterion -3.550443
Sum squared resid 0.038564 Schwarz criterion -3.278350
Log likelihood 64.58230 Hannan-Quinn criter. -3.458892
F-statistic 2.696661 Durbin-Watson stat 1.553791
Prob(F-statistic) 0.042137
两种检验结果冲突,用科克伦奥科特迭代法进行迭代之后所有的变量全都不显著了,请问各位高人这是怎么一回事呀,有没有什么补救办法?(有两组变量之间存在多重共线性,但均通过显著性检验,不影响模型,所有数据来源都有依据)