请问连老师,在我做有关arch的实证分析中,结果发现LM检验对高阶arch来说存在arch效应,但对低阶不存在,这是怎么回事啊?该如何arch建模啊。在课程中是滞后20阶,不管高阶低阶全部拒绝了原假设,即存在arch效应。
archlm, lag(1/20)
LM test for autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH)
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lags(p) | chi2 df Prob > chi2
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1 | 0.448 1 0.5032
2 | 4.294 2 0.1168
3 | 8.726 3 0.0332
4 | 10.763 4 0.0294
5 | 11.156 5 0.0484
6 | 12.424 6 0.0532
7 | 20.241 7 0.0051
8 | 20.555 8 0.0084
9 | 20.523 9 0.0149
10 | 26.942 10 0.0027
11 | 26.811 11 0.0049
12 | 26.820 12 0.0082
13 | 36.959 13 0.0004
14 | 36.852 14 0.0008
15 | 38.080 15 0.0009
16 | 38.348 16 0.0013
17 | 38.284 17 0.0022
18 | 38.413 18 0.0034
19 | 38.458 19 0.0052
20 | 38.659 20 0.0073
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H0: no ARCH effects vs. H1: ARCH(p) disturbance