GS Wildcat Explorer: Asian Energy Bi-Weekly能源行业

研究机构：高盛高华证券 分析师： Nilesh ... 撰写日期：2011年01月25日

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    Over the past month, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Oil andGas Index has been flat, underperforming the MSCIAsia-Pacific Index by 1.3pp. In our Asia-PacificEnergy coverage universe, the top performers wereSinopec-H, ENN Energy and PTT, whichoutperformed the MSCI Asia-Pacific Oil and GasIndex by 7.9pp, 6.8pp, and 6.6pp, respectively.
    We recently added Reliance Industries (RIL) to ourAsia Pacific Conviction Buy list as we believe thatits cyclical businesses are turning around and willlikely drive an earnings surprise over the mediumterm. With RIL’s leverage to recovering complexrefining margins and the global ethylene cyclelikely to bottom out in 2HCY11, we believe two ofRIL’s three core businesses are falling into placegoing forward. With the delay in D-6 volumeramp-up widely known and likely priced in, anypositive news flow on the E&P front could furtherre-rate RIL’s share price, in our view. (Please referto: From 0/3 last year to at least 2/3 in 2011; add toConviction Buy list, Jan 17, 2011).
    Strong demand for diesel-fired power generationpushed Chinese implied petroleum demand closeto 10 million b/d in December, up 1.5 million b/dyear-over-year. In the United States, totalpetroleum demand grew by 800 thousand b/dyear-over year in December, contributing to the 40million barrel draw on US inventories. Meanwhilein Europe, where the recovery in oil demand hasbeen lagging the other OECD regions, oil demandgrew for the sixth month in a row on a year-overyearbasis. However, while oil demand growth inthe OECD countries and China has been strong,the latest data from the IEA shows a sharpslowdown in the pace of the global draw oninventories. More specifically, while the world oilmarket was in a seasonally-adjusted deficit of 1.2million b/d in 3Q2010, preliminary inventory datasuggests that the oil market has shifted into aseasonally-adjusted surplus in 4Q2010, as thereported draw on world oil inventories in bothNovember in December was below the seasonalaverage. (Please refer to: Energy Weekly: Demandaccelerating, so why is world oil inventory drawstalling?, published Jan 24, 2010).