China Cement Sector:Looking for closure非金属类建材业

研究机构：三星证券 分析师： Kevin ... 撰写日期：2011年01月28日

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    We initiate coverage of six stocks in the China cement sector with BUYs on Anhui Conch, China National Building Materials, China Resources Cement, China National Materials (Sinoma) and West China Cement, and with a HOLD rating on China Shanshui Cement.
    Our thesis is simple: The government plans to close some 470m tpa of inefficient vertical kiln capacity and to restrict the construction of new cement plants. As a result, we expect the cement market to shift from a capacity surplus of ~180m tpa now to a shortfall by end-2012e.
    This should result in substantially higher cement prices-witness the 11-44% price rises in some regions in 4Q10 driven by power shortages-and, ultimately, share prices.
    We view the current seasonal weakness as a great buying opportunity.
    Our TOP PICKS are West China Cement, CR Cement, and Sinoma.