用水晶球软件进行蒙特卡洛模拟
To run a simulation using Crystal Ball




Monte-Carlo Simulation with Crystal Ball
®
用水晶球软件进行蒙特卡洛模拟
To run a simulation using Crystal Ball
®
:
1. Setup Spreadsheet
1．设定数据表
Build a spreadsheet that will calculate the performance measure (e.g., profit) in terms of
the inputs (random or not). For random inputs, just enter any number.
通过建立数据表可以对输入数据（随机的，非随机）进行评估。随机数据的
输入，输入任意数即可。
2. Define Assumptions—i.e., random variables
Define which cells are random, and what distribution they should follow.
2．定义假设的前提—例如，随机变量
确定那些单元格的数据时随机的，这些数据应该服从什么样的分布
3. Define Forecast—i.e., output or performance measure
Define which cell(s) you are interested in forecasting (typically the performance
measure, e.g., profit).
3．预测结果的确定—例如，数据输出或者性能的测定
确定哪些单元格的数据是你想预测的（典型的性能指标，例如，利润）
4. Choose Number of Trials
Select the number of trials. If you would later like to generate the Sensitivity Analysis
chart, choose “Sensitivity Analysis” under Options in Run Preferences.
4. 选择试验的次数
选择试验的次数。如果 要生成敏感度分析图表，选择优先运行下的“敏感度分析”
5. Run Simulation
Run the simulation. If you would like to change parameters and re-run the simulation,
you should “reset” the simulation (click on the “Reset Simulation” button on the
toolbar or in the Run menu) first.
运行模拟
运行模拟。如果要改变参数重新进行模拟，需要首先重置模拟（点击运行菜
单工具栏或者运行菜单下的“重置模拟”按钮）。
6. View Results
The forecast window showing the results of the simulation appears automatically after
(or during) the simulation. Many different results are available (frequency chart,....





下边多出了    巴菲特选股秘笈与本主题无关，正想法删除