Oil on troubled waters
The spike in oil prices is likely to reverse. But firm global demand and a continuing risk premium should keep prices high, challenging central banks.
GLOBAL LETTER
Oil economics 5
Most of the oil price rise is in our forecasts; supply side-driven factors should reverse.
REGIONAL ROUNDUPS
United States
Nearing mid-point of QE2 voyage 6
Despite the economy’s smart pick-up, the Fed is on course to complete its purchases.
Europe
Seconds out, round two 8
Central bankers focus on “second-round effects” but how wages respond is subtle.
Japan
Repatriating overseas funds 10
“Hollowing out” of domestic production capacity should not be seen as being inevitable.
Asia
Impact of MENA turmoil on Asia 12
We see India, the Philippines and Vietnam as the most vulnerable to continued unrest.
Emerging Markets
Andeans: Tightening again 14
Efforts to stem FX appreciation are leading to rising inflation expectations.
SPECIAL TOPICS
Europe
Gauging slack: Introducing NEWRI 16
Our new indicator signals less EA slack than implied by standard GDP-based measures.
Japan
Japanese exports and the Lunar New Year 19
Trade statistics for the Jan-Mar quarter should be viewed with some caution.
China
The quest for labour 21
We expect shortages to help rebalance growth and upgrade industry but fuel inflation too.
Australia
Inflation to trump deflation 22
Inflation expectations are rising – a concern for the RBA and reason to hike rates in May.
Venezuela
No crunch 24

Wh i b i T i ?
Outline
- Who is buying Treasuries?
- Who is buying GSE MBS & agency debt?
- Who is buying Credit?
- Who is buying Munis?
- Asset allocation for Foreigners, Households/Hedge
funds, Insurance companies, Pension funds, Banks, and
Mutual funds
- Outlook

谢谢分享！

谢谢分享！

谢谢分享！