We attended the USDA’s Ag Outlook in DC last
Thursday and Friday where the USDA presented a
bullish perspective on the 11/12 crop balances.
Acknowledging the tightness of the current global supply
situation, the USDA sees increased production lifting US
corn stocks to use (S/U) to 6.4% in 11/12 from 5.0% in
10/11. In soybeans, the outlook is similarly constructive,
with S/U forecast to grow to 4.8% — a three-year high
yet still well below historical averages — from 4.2% in
10/11. Wheat S/U are expected to fall from a
comparatively comfortable 33% in 2010/11 to 28.3% in
11/12, despite a forecast 3.4 mln acre YoY increase in
planted area