"An Analysis of U.S. Fiscal and Generational Imbalances: Who Will Pay and How?"

Author/Editor:  Batini, Nicoletta ; Callegari, Giovanni ; Guerreiro, Julia  
Authorized for Distribution:  April 01, 2011  

下载网址:http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24770

Summary: This paper updates existing measures of the U.S. fiscal gap to include federal laws up to and including the mid-December 2010 federal fiscal stimulus. It then applies the methodology of generational accounting to establish how the burden of adjustment required to attain fiscal sustainability is shared across generations. We find that the U.S. fiscal and generational imbalances are large under plausible parametric assumptions, and, while not much affected by the financial crisis, they have not improved much by the passing of the Final Healthcare Legislation. We find that, under our baseline scenario, a full elimination of the fiscal and generational imbalances would require all taxes to go up and all transfers to be cut immediately and permanently by 35 percent. A delay in the adjustment makes it more costly.

美国正在消减预算呢，包括高校的预算也在消减，学生们抗议的声音很高。
也许美国会开征VAT来缓解财政困难，虽然具体时间未定，但支持开征新税的法律学者还是挺多的。

There are someguys have suggested using VAT tax substitue corperate income taxes in the U.S. from early 80s, but the piont is Americans have accustomed to the old tax rule and the transition costs are so huge. therefore, it is impossible taking VAT as the new fiscal revenue.