China Healthcare:Making a call on the sector医药生物

研究机构：德意志银行 分析师： Jack H ... 撰写日期：2011年04月04日

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    We are making a call that is largely negative to the healthcare sector, as the centralgovernment is likely to encourage more province-based, centralized procurementfor both drugs and devices. We conclude that implementation of province-basedprocurement could put pressure on both pharmaceuticals and medical devicemanufacturers, but should be positive for distributors. We continue to favorbellwethers in the manufacturing and distribution subsectors for the long term, butcaution investors on near-term risks that have not been priced-in.
    Investor concerns regarding the healthcare sector have centered on high valuationand pricing pressure. As 4Q10 results on the whole merely met or fell belowstreet consensus, and emerging pricing risks from policy implementation have notbeen priced-in, we expect 2011E consensus to be revised down. We still believehealthcare remains the most expensive of the 10 MSCI China sectors. Werecommend remaining on the sidelines until we have more clarity.