Changing shape of consumption in China; up to US$5.3trn increase
UBS expects China to take a further share of global consumption over the next decade, reaching the current US level in 2030E, implying roughly US$6trn in household consumption growth in the next decade. We believe increasing female empowerment and related changes to household structures in China have a potentially significant impact on the shape of this consumption growth. Our regression and scenario analysis allows us to model US$$3.3-5.3trn of household consumption growth by 2030E from these factors alone. We think markets underestimate the potential implications of the changing consumption drivers in China across sectors and companies. UBS Evidence Lab survey of Chinese female consumers (> Access Dataset) and collaboration with global
analysts across 16 sectors suggest this female-driven evolution in consumption behaviour and household structure favours investment (asset management/insurance) and individual consumption with higher spending per capita (luxury, pets, healthy food, and beer) over other traditional consumer sectors.