本期要点

1. 本周，欧元/美元汇率呈现短期整理趋势，我们预计近期美元的弱势趋势将继续，但多种因素显示，欧元上行的阻力在不断积累。

2. 日元近期走势是与其作为融资货币的角色分不开的，随着美国和日本之间的利率差缩小，全球风险偏好的上升势头有所减缓。我们认为，日元未来将受支持。

3. 中国一季度GDP增速达到9.7%，CPI三月同比上涨5.4%，均超过市场预期，德银认为，GDP季度环比增速的放缓，以及从今年年中开始通货膨胀增速的降低，都会减小货币政策收紧的压力。

4. 香港离岸市场的人民币存款在过去14个月中增长了6倍，本期我们探讨该市场的未来，并分析离岸人民币资产对于境内监管操作的影响

1.       China Q1 GDP achieved a 9.7% yoy growth rate, and CPI rose 5.4% yoy in March, both slightly higher then consensus. DB believes that this moderation of GDP growth, together with the likely decline in inflation from the middle of this year, should reduce the pressure for monetary tightening a few months later.

2.       With RMB deposits in Hong Kong’s offshore market raised six-fold over the past 14 months, we included in this issue an analysis of the market, particularly the Impact of Offshore RMB Assets on Monetary Operation

3.       With EUR/USD convincingly breaking through the topside of the range we identified at the beginning of the year, we turn more cautious on trying to call an imminent top.