World Economic Outlook(242P)
International Monetary Fund | April 2011 iii
Assumptions and Conventions ix
Preface xi
Foreword xiii
Executive Summary xv
Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies 1
Th e Recovery Has Solidifi ed, but Unemployment Remains High 1
Financial Conditions Are Improving 1
Commodity Prices Are Resurgent 5
Th e Recovery Is Expected to Solidify 7
Risks Are Smaller but Remain to the Downside 10
Diff erences in the Pace of Activity Present Short-Term Policy Challenges 13
Advanced Economies Need to Repair Public and Financial Balance Sheets 14
Emerging Market Economies Need to Guard against Overheating and Credit Booms 18
Global Demand Rebalancing Is Not Progressing 23
Unemployment Needs to Be Reduced 26
Policies Are Not Yet Suffi ciently Proactive 27
Appendix 1.1. Financial Conditions Indices 28
Appendix 1.2. Commodity Market Developments and Prospects 30
References 56
Chapter 2. Country and Regional Perspectives 59
Recovery Proceeds in the United States 60
A Gradual and Uneven Recovery Is under Way in Europe 64
A Moderate Recovery Continues in the Commonwealth of Independent States 69
Rapid Growth Continues in Asia 72
Latin America Faces Buoyant External Conditions 76
Growth Has Returned to Precrisis Rates in Many African Countries 79
Th e Recovery in the Middle East and North Africa Region Faces an Uncertain Environment 82
References 88
Chapter 3. Oil Scarcity, Growth, and Global Imbalances 89
What Are the Main Findings? 90
Has Oil Become a Scarce Resource? 90
Oil Scarcity and the Global Economy 101
Implications for the Outlook and Policies 109
Appendix 3.1. Low-Frequency Filtering for Extracting Business Cycle Trends 112
Appendix 3.2. Th e Energy and Oil Empirical Models 112
References 123
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