1 Reviving Employment Refl ects Powerful
Labor Market Transformations 1
John P. Lipsky, Chief Economist, JPMorgan Chase
James E. Glassman, Senior Economist, JPMorgan Chase
2 The Global Labor Arbitrage 19
Stephen S. Roach, Chief Economist, Morgan Stanley
3 America’s Optimistic Future 39
David R. Malpass, Chief Economist, Bear Stearns
4 How U.S. Fiscal Policy Aids Both U.S.
and Global Growth 67
Kathleen Stephansen, Director of Global Economics,
Credit Suisse First Boston
5 Globalization and Trade—
The Role of Proximity, Borders, and Culture 83
Tim O’Neill, Former Chief Economist,
BMO Financial Group
6 The Rise and Fall of the Dollar 97
Michael R. Rosenberg, Former Senior Strategist,
Harbert Management Corp.
7 Politics and the Economy 121
Thomas D. Gallagher, Senior Managing Director,
International Strategy & Investment Group
8 The U.S. Fiscal Defi cit—Not a Moment to Lose 135
William C. Dudley, Chief U.S. Economist, Goldman Sachs
Edward F. McKelvey, Senior U.S. Economist, Goldman Sachs
9 Corporate Profi ts—Critical for Business Analysis 149
Richard B. Berner, Chief U.S. Economist, Morgan Stanley
10 Monetary Policy, Wicksell, and Gold 169
John Ryding, Chief U.S. Economist, Bear Stearns
11 Commodity Price Pass-Through—
Finished Before It Began? 183
David A. Rosenberg, Chief North American Economist,
Merrill Lynch
12 Capital Markets and the Economy 193
David P. Goldman, Head of Debt Research,
Banc of America Securities
13 Europe’s Political and Economic Future 209
Thomas Mayer, Chief European Economist, Deutsche Bank
14 The Economic Future of Asia 227
Robert D. Hormats, Vice Chairman,
Goldman Sachs International