文章目录：

•    Can You Move toOpportunity? Evidence from the Great Migration
•   移居能带来机会么？来自大迁徙的证据（IV，注意经验事实的描述）
•    Imperfect Markets versusImperfect Regulation in US Electricity Generation
•    美国电力生产的不完全竞争市场与不完善监管（分解，DID）
•    Political Turnover,Bureaucratic Turnover, and the Quality of Public Services
•    政治人员流动、官僚人员流动和公共服务质量（RD）
•    A Satellite Account forHealth in the United States
•    美国卫生事业的卫星账户（数据测算）
•    Consumer Information andthe Limits to Competition
•    消费者信息和竞争限制（博弈）
•    Hospital NetworkCompetition and Adverse Selection: Evidence from the Massachusetts HealthInsurance Exchange
•    医院网络竞争和逆向选择：马萨诸塞州健康保险交易所的证据（自然实验）
•    Incomplete InformationBargaining with Applications to Mergers, Investment, and Vertical Integration
•    不完全信息讨价还价与兼并、投资和纵向一体化的应用（博弈）
•    An Equilibrium Model ofthe International Price System
•    国际价格体系的均衡模型（一般均衡模型，数据校准）
•    Taxes and Turnout: Whenthe Decisive Voter Stays at Home
•    税收和投票率：当决定性的选民呆在家里的时候（博弈）
  

移居能带来机会么？来自大迁徙的证据

摘要：本文显示，大移民时期（1940-1970年）的种族构成冲击减少了黑人家庭在美国北部成长的收益，可以解释该地区今天种族向上流动的27%的差距。我通过将1940年前黑人移民的地点选择与预测的南部县城外迁相互作用来确定北部黑人份额的增加。位置的变化，而不是家庭的消极选择，解释了较低的向上流动，而持续的隔离和犯罪及警务的增加是合理的机制。如果考虑到目的地的反应，大移民的案例提供了一个更细微的移居获取机会的观点。

Abstract:This paper shows that racial composition shocksduring the Great Migration (1940–1970) reduced the gains from growing up in thenorthern United States for Black families and can explain 27 percent of theregion's racial upward mobility gap today. I identify northern Black shareincreases by interacting pre-1940 Black migrants' location choices withpredicted southern county out-migration. Locational changes, not negativeselection of families, explain lower upward mobility, with persistentsegregation and increased crime and policing as plausible mechanisms. The caseof the Great Migration provides a more nuanced view of moving to opportunitywhen destination reactions are taken into account.

美国电力生产的不完全竞争市场与不完善监管

摘要：本文评估了美国引入市场机制来决定生产所引起的发电成本的变化。我利用1999年至2012年向市场的交错过渡，对电力需求、发电机成本、容量和产出的综合小时面板，采用DID的方法估计自由化的因果影响。我发现，市场通过重新分配生产降低了5%的生产成本：其中基于交易电量增加25%，跨服务区的贸易收益增加了55%，而使用不经济的机组的成本下降了16%。

Abstract:This paper evaluates changes in electricitygeneration costs caused by the introduction of market mechanisms to determineproduction in the United States. I use the staggered transition to markets from1999 to 2012 to estimate the causal impact of liberalization using a differences-in-difference design on a comprehensive hourly panel of electricitydemand, generators' costs, capacities, and output. I find that markets reduceproduction costs by 5 percent by reallocating production: gains from tradeacross service areas increase by 55 percent based on a 25 percent increase intraded electricity, and costs from using uneconomical units fall 16 percent.

政治人员流动、官僚人员流动和公共服务质量

摘要：我们研究了巴西市长选举中的政治更替如何影响地方政府的公共服务提供。利用接近选举的断点回归，我们发现，有新党执政的城市经历了城市官僚机构的动荡：新的人员被任命到多个服务部门，在管理和非管理层面。在教育方面，在市政府控制的学校中，人员更换率的提高伴随着考试成绩的降低，其标准差为0.05-0.08。相比之下，市长党的更替并不影响地方（非市政）学校。这些发现表明，当官僚机构没有被屏蔽在政治过程之外时，政治更替会对公共服务的质量产生负面影响。

Abstract:We study how political turnover in mayoralelections in Brazil affects public service provision by local governments.Exploiting a regression discontinuity design for close elections, we find thatmunicipalities with a new party in office experience upheavals in the municipalbureaucracy: new personnel are appointed across multiple service sectors, andat both managerial and non-managerial levels. In education, the increase in thereplacement rate of personnel in schools controlled by the municipal governmentis accompanied by test scores that are 0.05–0.08 standard deviations lower. Incontrast, turnover of the mayor's party does not impact local (non-municipal) schools.These findings suggest that political turnover can adversely affect the qualityof public services when the bureaucracy is not shielded from the politicalprocess.

美国卫生事业的卫星账户

摘要：本文为美国卫生部门开发了一个卫星账户，并衡量了1999年至2012年期间老年人口医疗保健的生产力增长。我们衡量了一套全面的80种疾病的医疗支出和健康结果的变化。医疗护理在这段时间内有正的生产力增长，每年总的生产力增长为1.5%。然而，在生产力增长方面存在着明显的异质性。心血管疾病的护理有非常高的生产力增长。相比之下，对肌肉骨骼疾病患者的护理成本很高，但并没有导致结果的改善。

Abstract:This paper develops a satellite account for the UShealth sector and measures productivity growth in health care for the elderlypopulation between 1999 and 2012. We measure the change in medical spending andhealth outcomes for a comprehensive set of 80 conditions. Medical care haspositive productivity growth over the time period, with aggregate productivitygrowth of 1.5 percent per year. However, there is significant heterogeneity inproductivity growth. Care for cardiovascular disease has had very highproductivity growth. In contrast, care for people with musculoskeletalconditions has been costly but has not led to improved outcomes.

消费者信息和竞争限制

摘要：本文研究当消费者观察到他们对产品的偏好的私人信号时，企业之间的竞争。在引起纯策略定价均衡的信号结构类别中，我们推导出对企业的最优信号结构和对消费者的最优信号结构。企业最优的政策放大了潜在的产品差异，从而放松了竞争，同时确保消费者购买他们的首选产品，从而使总福利最大化。消费者最优政策抑制了差异化，从而加剧了竞争，但诱使一些消费者购买他们不太喜欢的产品。我们的分析揭示了当消费者拥有的信息可以被灵活设计时，竞争的局限性。

Abstract:This paper studies competition between firms whenconsumers observe a private signal of their preferences over products. Withinthe class of signal structures that induce pure-strategy pricing equilibria, wederive signal structures that are optimal for firms and those that are optimalfor consumers. The firm-optimal policy amplifies underlying productdifferentiation, thereby relaxing competition, while ensuring consumerspurchase their preferred product, thereby maximizing total welfare. Theconsumer-optimal policy dampens differentiation, which intensifies competition,but induces some consumers to buy their less preferred product. Our analysissheds light on the limits to competition when the information possessed byconsumers can be designed flexibly.

医院网络竞争和逆向选择：马萨诸塞州健康保险交易所的证据

摘要：健康保险公司越来越多地在其医疗服务提供者的网络上竞争。利用马萨诸塞州保险交易所的数据，我发现对涵盖最著名和最昂贵的“明星”医院的计划有大量的逆向选择。我强调了一个理论上独特的选择渠道：忠于明星医院的消费者在他们的医疗状况下会产生高额支出，因为他们使用这些医院的昂贵护理。这意味着消费者获得明星医院服务的增量成本的异质性，对标准的选择政策构成了挑战。连同对未观察到的疾病的选择，我发现这产生了排除明星医院的强烈动机，即使有风险调整的存在。

Abstract:Health insurers increasingly compete on theirnetworks of medical providers. Using data from Massachusetts's insuranceexchange, I find substantial adverse selection against plans covering the mostprestigious and expensive "star" hospitals. I highlight atheoretically distinct selection channel: consumers loyal to star hospitalsincur high spending, conditional on their medical state, because they use thesehospitals' expensive care. This implies heterogeneity in consumers' incrementalcosts of gaining access to star hospitals, posing a challenge for standardselection policies. Along with selection on unobserved sickness, I find thiscreates strong incentives to exclude star hospitals, even with risk adjustmentin place.

不完全信息讨价还价与兼并、投资和纵向一体化的应用

摘要：我们提供了一个不完全信息讨价还价的框架，该框架捕捉了有多个买家和多个供应商的市场中不同的讨价还价能力的影响。市场被建模为这样一种机制，在激励相容、个人理性和无赤字的约束下，使企业的预期加权福利最大化。我们的研究表明，在这个模型中，假定纵向一体化增加同等权重的社会剩余是没有依据的，而适当改变谈判权重的横向兼并则有可能增加社会剩余。此外，有效的讨价还价意味着在均衡中，非契约性投资是有效的。

Abstract: We provide an incomplete information bargaining framework thatcaptures the effects of differential bargaining power in markets with multiplebuyers and multiple suppliers. The market is modeled as a mechanism thatmaximizes the expected weighted welfare of the firms, subject to theconstraints of incentive compatibility, individual rationality, and no deficit.We show that, in this model, there is no basis for the presumption thatvertical integration increases equally weighted social surplus, while it ispossible that horizontal mergers that appropriately change bargaining weightsincrease social surplus. Moreover, efficient bargaining implies that inequilibrium noncontractible investments are efficient.

国际价格体系的均衡模型

摘要：是什么解释了美元在世界贸易中的核心作用？美国货币在未来是否会保持其主导地位？本文构建了一个带有内生货币选择的定量一般均衡框架，可以回答这些问题。价格制定的互补性和企业间的投入产出联系产生了货币选择的互补性，这使出口商协调以相同的货币开具发票。由于美国经济规模庞大，普遍与美元挂钩，以及货币选择中的历史依赖性，美元更有可能发挥这种作用。使用世界投入产出表和汇率矩（exchange rate moments）进行校准，该模型可以成功地复制关于全球层面、各国和不同时期的货币使用的关键经验事实。根据反事实分析，其他经济体与美元挂钩确保了美国货币不太可能因为美国在世界经济中的份额下降而失去其全球地位，但在美国经济出现负面冲击的情况下可以被人民币取代。如果放弃挂钩，世界就有可能进入一个多区域货币的新平衡状态。

Abstract: What explains the central role of the dollar inworld trade? Will the US currency retain its dominant status in the future?This paper develops a quantitative general equilibrium framework withendogenous currency choice that can address these questions. Complementaritiesin price setting and input-output linkages across firms generatecomplementarities in currency choice making exporters coordinate on the samecurrency of invoicing. The dollar is more likely to play this role because ofthe large size of the US economy, a widespread peg to the dollar, and thehistory dependence in currency choice. Calibrated using the world input-outputtables and exchange rate moments, the model can successfully replicate the keyempirical facts about the use of currencies at the global level, acrosscountries, and over time. According to the counterfactual analysis, the peg tothe dollar in other economies ensures that the US currency is unlikely to loseits global status because of the falling US share in the world economy, but canbe replaced by the renminbi in case of a negative shock in the US economy. If the peg is abandoned, the world is likely to move to a new equilibrium with multipleregional currencies.

税收和投票率：当决定性的选民呆在家里的时候

摘要：我们建立了一个具有内生投票率和内生平台的政治竞争模型。党派在激励其支持者投票和阻止竞争党派的支持者投票之间进行权衡。我们的研究表明，后一个目标对于在政治竞争中具有优势的政党来说特别明显。因此，对一个政党的政治支持的增加可能会导致采取有利于其对手的政策，以便不对称地使其复员（demobilize them）。我们研究了再分配税收对政治经济的影响。均衡的税收政策通常与被复员的选民的利益相一致。

Abstract: We develop a model of political competition withendogenous turn-out and endogenous platforms. Parties trade off incentivizingtheir supporters to vote and discouraging the supporters of the competing partyfrom voting. We show that the latter objective is particularly pronounced for aparty with an edge in the political race. Thus, an increase in politicalsupport for a party may lead to the adoption of policies favoring its opponentsso as to asymmetrically demobilize them. We study the implications for the political economy of redistributive taxation. Equilibrium tax policy istypically aligned with the interest of voters who are demobilized.

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