摘要翻译：
建立了聚聚市场上（近）均质耐用品产品生命周期的动态模型。它描述了耐用品的单位销售和价格的并行演变。该理论基于这样一个观点，即销售动态是由需求与供应产品单元的满足过程决定的。利用首次购买的Bass模型和再购买的logistic模型，可以建立耐用品的整个产品生命周期。在供给快速增长的情况下，模型表明商品的平均价格按逻辑斯蒂律递减。两者，既定的单位销售和价格演变与本文所研究的实证数据是一致的。该方法进一步讨论了扩散过程与供应动态之间的干扰。该模型预测了在生命周期的初始阶段由于供应约束而导致的销售损失的发生。它们是市场渗透迟缓的根源。该理论表明，Bass模型中表示社会传染的模仿率B在引入时可用单元数量较多且产量增长较快的情况下有其最大值。所调查样本的经验数据与这一预测定性一致。
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英文标题：
《The Product Life Cycle of Durable Goods》
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作者：
Joachim Kaldasch
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最新提交年份：
2015
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分类信息：

一级分类：Statistics        统计学
二级分类：Other Statistics        其他统计数字
分类描述：Work in statistics that does not fit into the other stat classifications
从事不适合其他统计分类的统计工作
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance        一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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英文摘要：
  A dynamic model of the product lifecycle of (nearly) homogeneous durables in polypoly markets is established. It describes the concurrent evolution of the unit sales and price of durable goods. The theory is based on the idea that the sales dynamics is determined by a meeting process of demanded with supplied product units. Taking advantage from the Bass model for first purchase and a logistic model for repurchase the entire product lifecycle of a durable can be established. For the case of a fast growing supply the model suggests that the mean price of the good decreases according to a logistic law. Both, the established unit sales and price evolution are in agreement with the empirical data studied in this paper. The presented approach discusses further the interference of the diffusion process with the supply dynamics. The model predicts the occurrence of lost sales in the initial stages of the lifecycle due to supply constraints. They are the origin for a retarded market penetration. The theory suggests that the imitation rate B indicating social contagion in the Bass model has its maximum magnitude for the case of a large amount of available units at introduction and a fast output increase. The empirical data of the investigated samples are in qualitative agreement with this prediction.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1109.0828