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2022-03-08
摘要翻译:
纵观经济史,全球经济经历了一次又一次的危机。这种经济危机的持续复发要求了解其一般特征,而不是将其视为单一事件。全球经济体系是一个高度复杂的体系,可以最好地从一个相互作用的宏观经济主体网络的角度来看待。在此,我们从集体网络动力学的角度,探讨全球宏观经济网络的拓扑结构如何影响经济危机的传播模式。通过一个简单的危机传播模型,我们证明了一个国家在危机传播中的作用不仅取决于其宏观经济总量,而且取决于其在世界经济网络中的地方和全球连通状况。我们发现,一方面,区域尺度上薄弱环节的聚集会显著加剧危机的蔓延,但另一方面,与更“全球化”的随机网络相比,当前全球尺度上的网络结构对极端危机的容忍度更高。这些结果表明,正在进行的全球化运动可能会增加全球经济体系对极端危机的脆弱性,从而在各国之间建立受限制较少的跨区域经济联系,这可能会带来潜在的隐性代价。
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英文标题:
《Impact of the topology of global macroeconomic network on the spreading
  of economic crises》
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作者:
Kyu-Min Lee, Jae-Suk Yang, Gunn Kim, Jaesung Lee, Kwang-Il Goh, and
  In-mook Kim
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最新提交年份:
2011
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分类信息:

一级分类:Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类:Statistical Finance        统计金融
分类描述:Statistical, econometric and econophysics analyses with applications to financial markets and economic data
统计、计量经济学和经济物理学分析及其在金融市场和经济数据中的应用
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一级分类:Physics        物理学
二级分类:Statistical Mechanics        统计力学
分类描述:Phase transitions, thermodynamics, field theory, non-equilibrium phenomena, renormalization group and scaling, integrable models, turbulence
相变,热力学,场论,非平衡现象,重整化群和标度,可积模型,湍流
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一级分类:Physics        物理学
二级分类:Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability        数据分析、统计与概率
分类描述:Methods, software and hardware for physics data analysis: data processing and storage; measurement methodology; statistical and mathematical aspects such as parametrization and uncertainties.
物理数据分析的方法、软硬件:数据处理与存储;测量方法;统计和数学方面,如参数化和不确定性。
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一级分类:Physics        物理学
二级分类:Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述:Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体(人类或其他)的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统(如能源网、运输网络)的物理和工程。
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一级分类:Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类:Risk Management        风险管理
分类描述:Measurement and management of financial risks in trading, banking, insurance, corporate and other applications
衡量和管理贸易、银行、保险、企业和其他应用中的金融风险
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英文摘要:
  Throughout economic history, the global economy has experienced recurring crises. The persistent recurrence of such economic crises calls for an understanding of their generic features rather than treating them as singular events. The global economic system is a highly complex system and can best be viewed in terms of a network of interacting macroeconomic agents. In this regard, from the perspective of collective network dynamics, here we explore how the topology of global macroeconomic network affects the patterns of spreading of economic crises. Using a simple toy model of crisis spreading, we demonstrate that an individual country's role in crisis spreading is not only dependent on its gross macroeconomic capacities, but also on its local and global connectivity profile in the context of the world economic network. We find that on one hand clustering of weak links at the regional scale can significantly aggravate the spread of crises, but on the other hand the current network structure at the global scale harbors a higher tolerance of extreme crises compared to more "globalized" random networks. These results suggest that there can be a potential hidden cost in the ongoing globalization movement towards establishing less-constrained, trans-regional economic links between countries, by increasing the vulnerability of global economic system to extreme crises.
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PDF链接:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1011.4336
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