摘要翻译：
东非的工业机会是什么？本文通过对肯尼亚、莫桑比克、卢旺达、坦桑尼亚和赞比亚五个东南非洲国家的生产结构的研究，探讨了这一问题。产品空间是一个网络，连接往往由同一组国家出口的产品。由于各国更有可能在产品空间中开发与它们已经生产的产品相近的产品，产品空间可以用来帮助预测一国的工业机会。我们的结果表明，这五个东南非洲国家未来产品多样化的最自然途径在于农业部门，因为所有这些国家的生产结构似乎都预先适应了许多目前没有出口的农产品的生产。本文的结论是，通过对这五个国家的生产结构进行整合，探讨进一步区域经济一体化的潜在好处。这项工作表明，在合并经济中更容易获得的产品再次主要是农业产品。这些结果表明，虽然所有部门的多样化仍应是本区域的一个重要长期目标，但在不久的将来，实现更多多样化的道路很可能在于增强农业部门的能力和多样化。
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英文标题：
《Discovering East Africa's Industrial Opportunities》
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作者：
Cesar A. Hidalgo
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最新提交年份：
2012
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance        一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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英文摘要：
  What are East Africa's industrial opportunities? In this article we explore this question by using the Product Space to study the productive structure of five south-east African countries: Kenya, Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania and Zambia. The Product Space is a network connecting products that tend to be exported by the same sets of countries. Since countries are more likely to develop products that are close by in the Product Space to the ones that they already produce, the Product Space can be used to help anticipate a country's industrial opportunities.   Our results suggest that the most natural avenue for future product diversification for these five south-east African nations resides in the agricultural sector, since all of these nations appear to have productive structures that are pre-adapted to the production of many agricultural products that none of them are currently exporting.   We conclude this paper by exploring the potential benefits of further regional economic integration by doing an exercise in which we pull together the productive structures of these five countries. This exercise shows that the products that become more accessible in the combined economy are once again predominantly agricultural. These results suggest that while diversification into all sectors should remain an important long-term goal of the region, the path towards increased diversification in the near future may well lie in a more empowered and diverse agricultural sector.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1203.0163