摘要翻译：
随着婴儿潮一代开始瘦身和退休，他们的偏好现在与千禧一代对城市便利设施和较小生活空间的偏好重叠。美国人口中最大的两个年龄段的人在品味上的这种融合，已经有意义地改变了美国房价的演变。利用Bartik shift-share工具来分析人口结构驱动的需求冲击，我们显示从2000年到2018年(i)四居室和五居室房屋的价格增长落后于一居室和两居室房屋的价格，(ii)在当地劳动力市场中，婴儿潮一代富裕地区的相对房价与千禧一代富裕地区相比有所下降，(iii)较小房屋相对份额最大的地区增长最快。在最近的经济周期中，这些模式变得更加明显。我们表明，影响集中在住房供应最缺乏弹性的地区。如果住房市场的这种模式持续或扩大，以55岁或以上的人为户主的家庭持有的约16.5万亿房地产财富将受到重大影响。我们发现几乎没有证据表明这些即将到来的变化已经纳入了当前的价格。
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英文标题：
《The Millennial Boom, the Baby Bust, and the Housing Market》
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作者：
Marijn A. Bolhuis and Judd N. L. Cramer
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最新提交年份：
2021
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分类信息：

一级分类：Economics        经济学
二级分类：General Economics        一般经济学
分类描述：General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Economics        经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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英文摘要：
  As baby boomers have begun to downsize and retire, their preferences now overlap with millennials' predilection for urban amenities and smaller living spaces. This confluence in tastes between the two largest age segments of the U.S. population has meaningfully changed the evolution of home prices in the United States. Utilizing a Bartik shift-share instrument for demography-driven demand shocks, we show that from 2000 to 2018 (i) the price growth of four- and five-bedroom houses has lagged the prices of one- and two-bedroom homes, (ii) within local labor markets, the relative home prices in baby boomer-rich zip codes have declined compared with millennial-rich neighborhoods, and (iii) the zip codes with the largest relative share of smaller homes have grown fastest. These patterns have become more pronounced during the latest economic cycle. We show that the effects are concentrated in areas where housing supply is most inelastic. If this pattern in the housing market persists or expands, the approximately 16.5 trillion in real estate wealth held by households headed by those aged 55 or older will be significantly affected. We find little evidence that these upcoming changes have been incorporated into current prices.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11565