摘要翻译：
在《美国经济评论》最近的一篇文章中，Tatyana Deryugina和David Molitor(DM)分析了卡特里娜飓风对新奥尔良老年和残疾居民死亡率的影响。作者得出结论，卡特里娜飓风将新奥尔良老年和残疾居民的八年存活率提高了3%，死亡率的下降大部分是由于那些搬到死亡率较低的地方的人的死亡率下降。在本文中，我对DM提供的证据进行了批判性评估，以支持他们的结论。主要有三个问题。首先，DM通常不能解释这样一个事实，即随着时间的推移，不同年龄、种族或性别的人会有不同的死亡概率，当他们考虑到这一点时，结果会发生明显的变化。第二，糖尿病没有解释新奥尔良居民可能根据健康状况非随机选择的事实，因为与全国其他地区相比，新奥尔良的死亡率相对较高。第三，有相当多的证据表明，在从新奥尔良搬来的人中，选择的目的地是非随机的。最后，DM从未直接评估卡特里娜飓风前后移居或留在新奥尔良的人的死亡率变化。这些问题使我得出结论，DM提出的证据不支持他们的推论。
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英文标题：
《Did Hurricane Katrina Reduce Mortality?》
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作者：
Robert Kaestner
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最新提交年份：
2020
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分类信息：

一级分类：Economics        经济学
二级分类：General Economics        一般经济学
分类描述：General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Economics        经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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一级分类：Statistics        统计学
二级分类：Applications        应用程序
分类描述：Biology, Education, Epidemiology, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Medical, Physical Sciences, Quality Control, Social Sciences
生物学，教育学，流行病学，工程学，环境科学，医学，物理科学，质量控制，社会科学
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英文摘要：
  In a recent article in the American Economic Review, Tatyana Deryugina and David Molitor (DM) analyzed the effect of Hurricane Katrina on the mortality of elderly and disabled residents of New Orleans. The authors concluded that Hurricane Katrina improved the eight-year survival rate of elderly and disabled residents of New Orleans by 3% and that most of this decline in mortality was due to declines in mortality among those who moved to places with lower mortality. In this article, I provide a critical assessment of the evidence provided by DM to support their conclusions. There are three main problems. First, DM generally fail to account for the fact that people of different ages, races or sex will have different probabilities of dying as time goes by, and when they do allow for this, results change markedly. Second, DM do not account for the fact that residents in New Orleans are likely to be selected non-randomly on the basis of health because of the relatively high mortality rate in New Orleans compared to the rest of the country. Third, there is considerable evidence that among those who moved from New Orleans, the destination chosen was non-random. Finally, DM never directly assessed changes in mortality of those who moved, or stayed, in New Orleans before and after Hurricane Katrina. These problems lead me to conclude that the evidence presented by DM does not support their inferences.
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