英文标题：
《Export dynamics as an optimal growth problem in the network of global
  economy》
---
作者：
Michele Caraglio, Fulvio Baldovin and Attilio L. Stella
---
最新提交年份：
2016
---
英文摘要：
  We analyze export data aggregated at world global level of 219 classes of products over a period of 39 years. Our main goal is to set up a dynamical model to identify and quantify plausible mechanisms by which the evolutions of the various exports affect each other. This is pursued through a stochastic differential description, partly inspired by approaches used in population dynamics or directed polymers in random media. We outline a complex network of transfer rates which describes how resources are shifted between different product classes, and determines how casual favorable conditions for one export can spread to the other ones. A calibration procedure allows to fit four free model-parameters such that the dynamical evolution becomes consistent with the average growth, the fluctuations, and the ranking of the export values observed in real data. Growth crucially depends on the balance between maintaining and shifting resources to different exports, like in an explore-exploit problem. Remarkably, the calibrated parameters warrant a close-to-maximum growth rate under the transient conditions realized in the period covered by data, implying an optimal self organization of the global export. According to the model, major structural changes in the global economy take tens of years.
---
中文摘要：
我们分析了39年来全球219类产品的出口数据。我们的主要目标是建立一个动态模型，以确定和量化各种出口演变相互影响的可能机制。这是通过随机微分描述来实现的，部分灵感来自于种群动力学中使用的方法或随机介质中的定向聚合物。我们概述了一个复杂的转移率网络，该网络描述了资源如何在不同产品类别之间转移，并确定了一种出口的偶然有利条件如何传播到另一种出口。校准程序允许拟合四个自由模型参数，以便动态演化与实际数据中观察到的平均增长、波动和输出值排名保持一致。增长在很大程度上取决于维持资源和将资源转移到不同出口之间的平衡，比如在勘探开发问题中。值得注意的是，经过校准的参数保证在数据涵盖的时期内实现的瞬态条件下接近最大增长率，这意味着全球出口的最佳自组织。根据该模型，全球经济的重大结构变化需要几十年的时间。
---
分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Economics        经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
--
一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Statistical Mechanics        统计力学
分类描述：Phase transitions, thermodynamics, field theory, non-equilibrium phenomena, renormalization group and scaling, integrable models, turbulence
相变，热力学，场论，非平衡现象，重整化群和标度，可积模型，湍流
--
一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
--

---
PDF下载：
-->