英文标题：
《A predictive pan-European economic and production dispatch model for the
  energy transition in the electricity sector》
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作者：
Laurent Pagnier and Philippe Jacquod
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最新提交年份：
2017
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英文摘要：
  The energy transition is well underway in most European countries. It has a growing impact on electric power systems as it dramatically modifies the way electricity is produced. To ensure a safe and smooth transition towards a pan-European electricity production dominated by renewable sources, it is of paramount importance to anticipate how production dispatches will evolve, to understand how increased fluctuations in power generations can be absorbed at the pan-European level and to evaluate where the resulting changes in power flows will require significant grid upgrades. To address these issues, we construct an aggregated model of the pan-European transmission network which we couple to an optimized, few-parameter dispatch algorithm to obtain time- and geographically-resolved production profiles. We demonstrate the validity of our dispatch algorithm by reproducing historical production time series for all power productions in fifteen different European countries. Having calibrated our model in this way, we investigate future production profiles at later stages of the energy transition - determined by planned future production capacities - and the resulting interregional power flows. We find that large power fluctuations from increasing penetrations of renewable sources can be absorbed at the pan-European level via significantly increased electricity exchanges between different countries. We identify where these increased exchanges will require additional power transfer capacities. We finally introduce a physically-based economic indicator which allows to predict future financial conditions in the electricity market. We anticipate new economic opportunities for dam hydroelectricity and pumped-storage plants.
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中文摘要：
大多数欧洲国家的能源转型正在顺利进行。它对电力系统的影响越来越大，因为它极大地改变了电力的生产方式。为确保向以可再生能源为主的泛欧电力生产安全平稳过渡，预测生产调度将如何演变至关重要，了解如何在泛欧水平上吸收发电量波动的增加，并评估由此产生的潮流变化将需要重大的电网升级。为了解决这些问题，我们构建了泛欧传输网络的聚合模型，并将该模型与优化的少参数调度算法相结合，以获得时间和地理分辨率的生产概况。我们通过再现15个不同欧洲国家所有电力生产的历史生产时间序列，证明了我们调度算法的有效性。以这种方式校准了我们的模型后，我们研究了能源转型后期的未来生产概况（由计划的未来生产能力决定）以及由此产生的区域间电力流。我们发现，通过显著增加不同国家之间的电力交换，可在泛欧水平上吸收可再生能源不断渗透带来的巨大电力波动。我们确定这些增加的交流将需要额外的电力传输能力。最后，我们引入了一个基于物理的经济指标，该指标可以预测电力市场的未来财务状况。我们预计大坝水电站和抽水蓄能电站将迎来新的经济机遇。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance        一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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