英文标题：
《Contagious disruptions and complexity traps in economic development》
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作者：
Charles D. Brummitt, Kenan Huremovic, Paolo Pin, Matthew H. Bonds,
  Fernando Vega-Redondo
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最新提交年份：
2017
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英文摘要：
  Poor economies not only produce less; they typically produce things that involve fewer inputs and fewer intermediate steps. Yet the supply chains of poor countries face more frequent disruptions---delivery failures, faulty parts, delays, power outages, theft, government failures---that systematically thwart the production process. To understand how these disruptions affect economic development, we model an evolving input--output network in which disruptions spread contagiously among optimizing agents. The key finding is that a poverty trap can emerge: agents adapt to frequent disruptions by producing simpler, less valuable goods, yet disruptions persist. Growing out of poverty requires that agents invest in buffers to disruptions. These buffers rise and then fall as the economy produces more complex goods, a prediction consistent with global patterns of input inventories. Large jumps in economic complexity can backfire. This result suggests why \"big push\" policies can fail, and it underscores the importance of reliability and of gradual increases in technological complexity.
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中文摘要：
贫穷经济体不仅生产更少；他们通常生产的产品涉及较少的输入和较少的中间步骤。然而，穷国的供应链面临着更频繁的中断——交货失败、部件故障、延误、停电、盗窃、政府失灵——这些都系统性地阻碍了生产过程。为了理解这些干扰是如何影响经济发展的，我们建立了一个不断发展的输入-输出网络模型，在这个网络中，干扰会在优化代理之间传播。关键的发现是，贫困陷阱可能会出现：代理商通过生产更简单、价值更低的产品来适应频繁的中断，但中断仍在持续。摆脱贫困需要代理人投资于缓冲破坏。随着经济生产更复杂的商品，这些缓冲区会先升后降，这一预测与全球投入库存模式一致。经济复杂性的大幅提升可能适得其反。这一结果揭示了“大推进”政策可能失败的原因，并强调了可靠性和技术复杂性逐渐增加的重要性。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance        一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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