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Table of contents
Good demand prospects; still at early stage of growth cycle 2
Supply: Rising gas imports to sustain growth 10
Natural gas distribution: Identifying well-positioned players with our five-point investment scorecard 16
(1) Ability to secure new projects and capture industry consolidation opportunity 16
(2) Ability to pass through upstream cost hikes 20
(3) Economies of scale along with business growth 23
(4) Asset injections 24
(5) Sustainable growth 24
Valuation: Applying Director’s Cut to derive our target prices 27
Director’s Cut is primary methodology; we use DCF as a cross-check 27
Target price derivations 27
Cross-check with DCF 29
Sector is trading at mid-cycle P/E 30
Risk factors 31
Kunlun Energy (0135.HK, Buy (CL)): Emerging as a leader in LNG 33
Implementing strategy of substituting gas for oil 35
Building up the LNG value chain 36
LNG terminals set to contribute earnings in 2012 38
More asset injections ahead 39
Rapid growth in natural gas to boost earnings 42
Risk factors 43
China Resources Gas (1193.HK, Buy): Quality assets, solid growth 44
ENN Energy Holdings (2688.HK, Sell): Risks tilted to the downside 48
Beijing Enterprises (0392.HK, Neutral): Slowing growth ahead 50
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