International Country Risk Guide（1984-2006）

夸克之一

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收藏 2011-06-02

*名称：International Country Risk Guide （1984-2006）
*大小：511k
*格式：excel
*可复制程度：能复制

主要指标：

A	Government Stability	12
B	Socioeconomic Conditions	12
C	Investment Profile	12
D	Internal Conflict	12
E	External Conflict	12
F	Corruption	6
G	Military in Politics	6
H	Religious Tensions	6
I	Law and Order	6
J	Ethnic Tensions	6
K	Democratic Accountability	6
L	Bureaucracy Quality	4
Total		100

简介：
The ICRG model for forecasting financial, economic, and political risk was created in 1980 by the editors of International Reports, a widely respected weekly newsletter on international finance and economics. To meet the needs of clients for an in-depth and exhaustively researched analysis of the potential risks to international business operations, the editors created a statistical model to calculate risks and backed it up with analyses that explain the numbers and examine what the numbers do not show. The result is a comprehensive system that enables various types of risk to be measured and compared between countries. In 1992, ICRG, its editor and analysts moved from International Reports to The PRS Group, becoming an integral part of the company’s services to the international business community. In September 2001, PRS launched ICRG online.

One advantage of the ICRG model is that it allows users to make their own risk assessments based on the ICRG model or to modify the model to meet their specific requirements. If particular risk factors have greater bearing on business or investments, composite risk ratings can be recalculated by giving greater weight to those factors. Used by institutional investors, banks, multinational corporations, importers, exporters, foreign exchange traders, shipping concerns, and a multitude of others, the ICRG model can determine how financial, economic, and political risk might affect their business and investments now and in the future.
The system is based on a set of 22 components grouped into three major categories of risk: political, financial, and economic, with political risk comprising 12 components (and 15 subcomponents), and financial and economic risk each comprising five components. Each component is assigned a maximum numerical value (risk points), with the highest number of points indicating the lowest potential risk for that component and the lowest number (0) indicating the highest potential risk. The maximum points able to be awarded to any particular risk component is pre-set within the system and depends on the importance (weighting) of that component to the overall risk of a country.

The ICRG staff collects political information and financial and economic data, converting these into risk points for each individual risk component on the basis of a consistent pattern of evaluation. The political risk assessments are made on the basis of subjective analysis of the available information, while the financial and economic risk assessments are made solely on the basis of objective data. In addition to the 22 individual ratings, the ICRG model also produces a rating for each of the three risk factor groups plus an overall score for each country.
After a risk assessment (rating) has been awarded to each of the 22 risk components, the components within each category of risk are added together to provide a risk rating for each risk category (Political, Financial, or Economic). The risk ratings for these categories are then combined on the basis of a formula to provide the country’s overall, or composite, risk rating. As with the risk component ratings, the higher the rating computed for the political, financial, economic, or composite rating, the lower the risk, and vice versa.

Consequently, the ICRG system presents a comprehensive risk structure for the country with ratings for its overall, or composite, risk, for its political, financial, and economic risk and for the risk components that make up these broad risk categories. This approach enables the user to track the effect of a single risk component, or group of components, on the overall risk of a country.
In addition, ICRG also produces the information and data on which the ratings for the individual risk components are determined, together with its interpretation of that information or data. This enables the user of the system to balance his/her own interpretation of the information and data against that of the ICRG staff.

计算方法：
http://www.prsgroup.com/ICRG_Methodology.aspx#PolRiskRating