英文标题：
《The Changing Geopolitics in the Arab World: Implications of the 2017
  Gulf Crisis for Business》
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作者：
Jamal Bouoiyour (CATT, IRMAPE), Refk Selmi (CATT, IRMAPE)
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最新提交年份：
2019
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英文摘要：
  The international community was caught by surprise on 5 June 2017 when Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain and Egypt severed diplomatic ties with Qatar, accusing it of destabilizing the region. More than one year after this diplomatic rift, several questions remain unaddressed. This study focuses on the regional business costs of the year-long blockade on Qatar. We split the sample to compare the stock market performances of Qatar and its Middle Eastern neighbors before and after the Saudi-led Qatar boycott. We focus our attention on the conditional volatility process of stock market returns and risks related to financial interconnectedness. We show that the Gulf crisis had the most adverse impact on Qatar together with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Although not to the same degree as these three countries, Bahrain and Egypt were also harmfully affected. But shocks to the volatility process tend to have short-lasting effects. Moreover, the total volatility spillovers to and from others increase but moderately after the blockade. Overall, the quartet lobbying efforts did not achieve the intended result. Our findings underscore Qatar\'s economic vulnerability but also the successful resilience strategy of this tiny state. The coordinated diplomatic efforts of Qatar have been able to fight the economic and political embargo.
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中文摘要：
2017年6月5日，沙特阿拉伯、阿拉伯联合酋长国（UAE）、巴林和埃及断绝了与卡塔尔的外交关系，指责卡塔尔破坏了该地区的稳定，令国际社会大吃一惊。在这一外交分歧一年多之后，有几个问题仍未解决。这项研究的重点是卡塔尔长达一年的封锁造成的地区商业成本。我们分割样本，比较沙特领导的卡塔尔抵制行动前后卡塔尔及其中东邻国的股市表现。我们将注意力集中在股票市场回报的条件波动过程和与金融互联相关的风险上。我们表明，海湾危机对卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋的影响最为不利。虽然与这三个国家的影响程度不同，但巴林和埃及也受到了有害的影响。但对波动过程的冲击往往会产生短期持久的影响。此外，与其他方之间的总波动溢出增加，但在封锁后略有增加。总的来说，四方的游说努力没有达到预期的结果。我们的调查结果强调了卡塔尔的经济脆弱性，但也强调了这个小国成功的弹性战略。卡塔尔协调一致的外交努力能够打击经济和政治封锁。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance        一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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