英文标题：
《Systemic trade-risk of critical resources》
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作者：
Peter Klimek, Michael Obersteiner, Stefan Thurner
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最新提交年份：
2015
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英文摘要：
  In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis the role of strongly interconnected markets in fostering systemic instability has been increasingly acknowledged. Trade networks of commodities are susceptible to deleterious cascades of supply shocks that increase systemic trade-risks and pose a threat to geopolitical stability. On a global and a regional level we show that supply risk, scarcity, and price volatility of non-fuel mineral resources are intricately connected with the structure of the world-trade network of or spanned by these resources. On the global level we demonstrate that the scarcity of a resource, as measured by its trade volume compared to extractable reserves, is closely related to the susceptibility of the trade network with respect to cascading shocks. On the regional level we find that to some extent the region-specific price volatility and supply risk can be understood by centrality measures that capture systemic trade-risk. The resources associated with the highest systemic trade-risk indicators are often those that are produced as byproducts of major metals. We identify significant shortcomings in the management of systemic trade-risk, in particular in the EU.
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中文摘要：
2008年金融危机爆发后，人们越来越认识到相互关联的市场在助长系统不稳定方面的作用。大宗商品贸易网络容易受到有害的供应冲击级联的影响，这会增加系统性贸易风险，并对地缘政治稳定构成威胁。在全球和区域层面上，我们表明，非燃料矿产资源的供应风险、稀缺性和价格波动性与这些资源的世界贸易网络结构或所跨越的世界贸易网络结构密切相关。在全球层面上，我们证明，通过与可开采储量相比的贸易量衡量的资源稀缺性，与贸易网络对级联冲击的敏感性密切相关。在区域层面上，我们发现，在某种程度上，可以通过捕捉系统性贸易风险的中心性指标来理解特定区域的价格波动和供应风险。与最高系统性贸易风险指标相关的资源通常是作为主要金属副产品生产的资源。我们发现了系统性贸易风险管理方面的重大缺陷，尤其是在欧盟。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Economics        经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability        数据分析、统计与概率
分类描述：Methods, software and hardware for physics data analysis: data processing and storage; measurement methodology; statistical and mathematical aspects such as parametrization and uncertainties.
物理数据分析的方法、软硬件：数据处理与存储；测量方法；统计和数学方面，如参数化和不确定性。
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一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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