英文标题：
《A Bayesian Model of the Litigation Game》
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作者：
Enrique Guerra-Pujol
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最新提交年份：
2015
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英文摘要：
  Over a century ago, Oliver Wendell Holmes invited scholars to look at the law through the lens of probability theory: \"The prophecies of what the courts will do in fact, and nothing more pretentious, are what I mean by the law.\" Yet few legal scholars have taken up this intriguing invitation. As such, in place of previous approaches to the study of law, this paper presents a non-normative, mathematical approach to law and the legal process. Specifically, we present a formal Bayesian model of civil and criminal litigation, or what we refer to as the litigation game; that is, instead of focusing on the rules of civil or criminal procedure or substantive legal doctrine, we ask and attempt to answer a mathematical question: what is the posterior probability that a defendant in a civil or criminal trial will be found liable, given that the defendant has, in fact, committed a wrongful act?
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中文摘要：
一个多世纪前，奥利弗·温德尔·霍姆斯（Oliver Wendell Holmes）邀请学者们从概率论的角度来看待法律：“我所说的法律是指对法院将要做的事情的预言，而不是更多的自命不凡。”然而，很少有法律学者接受了这一耐人寻味的邀请。因此，本文提出了一种非规范的数学方法来研究法律和法律过程，以取代以往的法律研究方法。具体来说，我们提出了一个正式的民事和刑事诉讼贝叶斯模型，或我们所说的诉讼博弈；也就是说，我们没有把重点放在民事或刑事诉讼规则或实体法律理论上，而是提出并试图回答一个数学问题：鉴于被告事实上犯下了不法行为，民事或刑事审判中的被告被认定负有责任的后验概率是多少？
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Economics        经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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