摩根斯丹利 2011年平板电脑分析报告 —— “Mobile user come of age”

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收藏 2011-06-27

Tablet Demand and Disruption
Mobile Users Come of Age

目录：

PAPE R
ORGAN STANLEY BLUE Table of Contents
Executive Summary.............................................................................................4
Key Investment Conclusions...............................................................................5
Summary of Key Takeaways by Industry............................................................6
The New Computing Landscape.........................................................................7
Why We’re Bullish...............................................................................................7
Key Tablet Assumptions: Shipments and Cannibalization.................................12
State of the Tablet Market....................................................................................14
Hardware: Cannibalization Challenges PC Vendors...........................................19
Semiconductors: ARM Wins Round One in Tablet CPUs..................................28
Hard Disk Drives: Tablets Not Too Disruptive, Other Threats Linger.................38
Memory Semiconductors: NAND Is Best Bull Case Play....................................42
TFT-LCD and Touch Panels: Some Positives for Display Technology..............46
Imaging and Printing: Tablets to Reduce Printing Demand................................50
Software: Opportunities in Management, Applications and Security..................55
Interactive Entertainment: Tablets Poised to Cannibalize Hardware .................65
Cable/Satellite: Tablets Unlikely to Drive Incremental Cord-Cutting...................73
Media: A Game Changer for Content Owners....................................................77
Appendix I: Key Survey Takeaways.....................................................................81
Appendix II: US Tablet Survey Demographics.....................................................84
Appendix III: Models..............................................................................................85
Appendix IV: Summary of Tablet Offerings.........................................................87

摘要：

本帖隐藏的内容

Tablet demand is still underappreciated: shipments could reach 100 million by 2012, in our bull case scenario. A series of proprietary surveys covering more than 8,000 consumers and 50 chief information officers suggest that tablets are accelerating the adoption of the mobile internet. Our data yielded several surprises: 1) two-thirds of companies expect to allow tablets on their networks within a year; 2) consumer interest in tablets is even greater outside of the US, and 3) users are moving beyond web surfing, email, games, video, and applications to content creation. Tablets are additive to the broader computing market, and we see more beneficiaries than challenged companies.

Tablet disruption is not yet discounted by the market in many industries.Tablets should reduce PC market growth by 3 percentage points in 2011—maybe more over the long term. Like smartphones, tablet growth is likely to benefit the established leaders while challenging legacy technology. The impact on printing companies may be the most underappreciated cannibalization story, and we highlight AMD, Dell, Lexmark, and Ricoh as potentially challenged from tablets.

Market share leaders and “arms dealers” are the best way to play the bull case. Apple and Samsung Electronics are the most probable tablet beneficiaries, with tablets core to the investment thesis. ARM Holdings, Broadcom, and SanDisk help provide users with fast, touch-enabled, and power-efficient mobile devices and should enjoy greater scale if tablet growth surprises to the upside. Medium term, there are opportunities for software companies in applications, management, and security. Tablets’ impact on Wintel players Hewlett-Packard, Intel, and Microsoft has largely been discounted, and earnings risk appears limited, partially due to diversification.