June U.S. jobs data could be made in Japan

Report to shed more light on whether slowdown is temporary


The outline of what most economists expect in the June report is clear. The prevailing view is that hiring doubled last month from May’s lackluster initial reading of 54,000 nonfarm jobs.

While more hiring in June would be welcome news, the economy has to grow a lot faster to deliver the job growth necessary to drive down the nation’s 9.1% unemployment rate. Meeting that goal would require the U.S. to resume the same level of job growth achieved earlier in the year — more than 200,000 new hires each month.

Many economists continue to believe such a goal is within reach despite a recent raft of data that suggests the U.S. has slowed again. In this view, the Japanese earthquake in March so badly disrupted global supply chains, especially in the auto business, that the U.S. economy suffered a sizable but short-term shock that is now beginning to dissipate.

If this scenario proves correct, the U.S. should start to see evidence in early July via weekly data on new jobless claims and monthly reports on manufacturing activity. Also on tap are surveys on the U.S service sector in June and factory orders in May.

“I absolutely think we are going to see an acceleration in July,” said Harm Bandholz, chief U.S. economist at UniCredit Research. “The disruption in Japan has had a huge impact.”

As Japan goes ...

New evidence appears to support the view of Bandholz and others. The Japanese government reported last week that industrial production jumped 5.7% in May — the fastest pace in more than half a century. The gains were spearheaded by the rebounding auto sector, where most production was finally restored in the aftermath of the quake.

The disruptions caused by the natural disaster largely explain lower auto production and auto sales in the U.S., many economists say. Since auto makers could not get enough parts, they laid off workers earlier in the summer before the normal plant retoolings in late June and July. The residual effect has been elevated levels in weekly jobless claims, they argue.

The upcoming report Thursday on weekly jobless claims might shed more light on whether such conjecture is accurate. New applications for unemployment compensation often rise sharply in July because of auto-plant retooling.

If new applications remain flat or even decline, it would indicate the auto sector is mainly responsible for the recent rise in jobless claims. Yet an increase in claims over the next few weeks could suggest recent economic weakness will persist.

The jobs report for June follows on Friday, with the Labor Department due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The MarketWatch survey of economists projects a net increase of 115,000 jobs. Anything less than that could deepen worries on Wall Street about the health of the U.S. economy and spark a fresh fight in Washington between the Obama White House and Republican critics in Congress.

Tortoise labor market

Whatever the outcome, even the more optimistic economists do not expect a huge improvement in U.S. growth anytime soon. Aaron Smith, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics, said businesses remain very disciplined with their money. He doesn’t expect any hiring binges.

“I think we will see better employment numbers over the summer, but it’s going to be a gradual process,” he said.

What’s more, the last recession left the economy in such a weakened state that it’s more susceptible to external shocks that the U.S. might have shrugged off in the past, said Paul Ballew, chief economist of Ohio-based Nationwide Insurance. The U.S. is experiencing its most volatile period since the end of World War Two, he asserts.

The uncertainty and threats to the U.S. economy are not going away, either. Economists point to a Greek debt crisis that could infect the rest of Europe; another potential surge in energy prices; or the possible failure of Washington to agree to safeguard the payment of U.S. debt