The Review of Economic Studies2022年第6期

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1．TheDynamics of Return Migration, Human Capital Accumulation, and WageAssimilation

回返移民、人力资本积累和工资同化的动态

[url=]Jérôme Adda[/url], [url=]Christian Dustmann[/url], [url=]Joseph-Simon Görlach[/url]

The Review of Economic Studies,Volume 89, Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 2841–2871, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac003

This article develops and estimates adynamic model where individuals differ in ability and location preference toevaluate the mechanisms that affect the evolution of immigrants’ careers inconjunction with their re-migration plans. Our analysis highlights a novel formof selective return migration where those who plan to stay longer invest more intoskill acquisition, with important implications for the assessment ofimmigrants’ career paths and the estimation of their earnings profiles. Ourstudy also explains the willingness of immigrants to accept jobs at wages thatseem unacceptable to natives. Finally, our model provides important insight forthe design of migration policies, showing that policies that initially restrictresidence or condition residence on achievement shape not only immigrants’career profiles through their impact on human capital investment but alsodetermine the selection of arrivals and leavers.

本文开发并估计了一个动态模型，其中个人的能力和地点偏好不同，以评估影响移民职业演变的机制以及他们的再移民计划。我们的分析强调了一种新颖的选择性回返移民形式，即那些计划停留更长时间的人更多地投资于技能获取，这对评估移民的职业道路和估计他们的收入状况具有重要意义。我们的研究还解释了移民愿意接受当地人似乎无法接受的工资工作的意愿。最后，我们的模型为移民政策的设计提供了重要的见解，表明最初限制居住或以成就为条件居住的政策不仅通过对人力资本投资的影响来塑造移民的职业概况，而且还决定了抵达和离开者的选择。

2．TheImpact of Car Pollution on Infant and Child Health: Evidence from EmissionsCheating

汽车污染对婴幼儿健康的影响——来自排放作弊的证据

[url=]Diane Alexander[/url], [url=]Hannes Schwandt[/url]

The Review of Economic Studies,Volume 89, Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 2872–2910, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac007

In 2008, Volkswagen introduced a newgeneration of “Clean Diesel” cars and heavily marketed them to environmentallyconscious US consumers. Unknown to the public, these cars were anything butclean, emitting pollutants up to 150 times the level of comparable gas-fuelledcars. We study the rollout of these emissions-cheating diesel cars across theUnited States from 2008 to 2015 as a natural experiment to examine the impactof moderate levels of car pollution on infant and child health in the generalpopulation. Using the universe of vehicle registrations, we find that anadditional cheating diesel car per 1,000 cars increases PM2.5PM2.5⁠, PM10PM10⁠,and ozone by 2, 2.2, and 1.3%%⁠,respectively, while the low birth weight rate and infant mortality rateincrease by 1.9 and 1.7%%⁠,respectively. Similar impacts are found for acute asthma attacks in children.These health impacts occur at all pollution levels and across the socioeconomicspectrum.

2008年，大众汽车推出了新一代“清洁柴油”汽车，并向具有环保意识的美国消费者进行了大量营销。公众不知道，这些汽车一点也不干净，排放的污染物是同类汽油燃料汽车的150倍。我们研究了2008年至2015年美国各地这些排放作弊柴油车的推出，作为一项自然实验，以研究中等水平的汽车污染对普通人群中婴幼儿健康的影响。使用车辆登记量，我们发现每1000辆汽车增加一辆作弊柴油车，PM2.5PM2.5、PM10PM10和臭氧分别增加2%、2.2%和1.3%，而低出生体重率和婴儿死亡率增加1.9%和1.7%分别。对儿童急性哮喘发作也有类似的影响。这些健康影响发生在所有污染水平和整个社会经济范围内。

3．TheWelfare Effects of Transportation Infrastructure Improvements

交通基础设施改善的福利效应

[url=]Treb Allen[/url], [url=]Costas Arkolakis[/url]

The Review of Economic Studies,Volume 89, Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 2911–2957, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac001

Each year in the US, hundreds ofbillions of dollars are spent on transportation infrastructure and billions ofhours are lost in traffic. We develop a quantitative general equilibriumspatial framework featuring endogenous transportation costs and trafficcongestion and apply it to evaluate the welfare impact of transportationinfrastructure improvements. Our approach yields analytical expressions fortransportation costs between any two locations, the traffic along each link ofthe transportation network, and the equilibrium distribution of economicactivity across the economy, each as a function of the underlying quality ofinfrastructure and the strength of traffic congestion. We characterize theproperties of such an equilibrium and show how the framework can be combinedwith traffic data to evaluate the impact of improving any segment of theinfrastructure network. Applying our framework to both the US highway networkand the Seattle road network, we find highly variable returns to investmentacross different links in the respective transportation networks, highlightingthe importance of well-targeted infrastructure investment.

在美国，每年有数千亿美元用于交通基础设施，数十亿小时在交通中损失。我们开发了一个以内生交通成本和交通拥堵为特征的定量一般均衡空间框架，并将其应用于评估交通基础设施改善对福利的影响。我们的方法可以分析任何两个地点之间的运输成本、运输网络每个环节的交通量以及整个经济中经济活动的均衡分布，每个都取决于基础设施的基本质量和交通拥堵的强度。我们描述了这种均衡的特性，并展示了如何将框架与交通数据相结合，以评估改善基础设施网络任何部分的影响。将我们的框架应用于美国高速公路网络和西雅图公路网络，我们发现各自交通网络中不同环节的投资回报率差异很大，这凸显了有针对性的基础设施投资的重要性。

4．Subjective Modelsof the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Experts and Representative Samples

宏观经济的主观模型：来自专家的证据和代表性样本

[url=]Peter Andre[/url], [url=]Carlo Pizzinelli[/url], [url=]Christopher Roth[/url], [url=]Johannes Wohlfart[/url]

The Review of Economic Studies,Volume 89, Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 2958–2991, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac008

We study people’s subjective models of the macroeconomy andshed light on their attentional foundations. To do so, we measure beliefs aboutthe effects of macroeconomic shocks on unemployment and inflation, providingrespondents with identical information about the parameters of the shocks andprevious realizations of macroeconomic variables. Within samples of 6,500 UShouseholds and 1,500 experts, beliefs are widely dispersed, even about thedirectional effects of shocks, and there are large differences in averagebeliefs between households and experts. Part of this disagreement seems toarise because respondents think of different propagation channels of theshocks, in particular demand- vs. supply-side mechanisms. We provide evidenceon the role of associative memory in driving heterogeneity in thoughts andforecasts: contextual cues and prior experiences shape which propagationchannels individuals retrieve and thereby which forecasts they make. Ourfindings offer a new perspective on the widely documented disagreement in macroeconomicexpectations.

我们研究人们对宏观经济的主观模型，并阐明他们的注意力基础。为此，我们衡量了对宏观经济冲击对失业和通货膨胀影响的信念，为受访者提供了关于冲击参数和宏观经济变量先前实现的相同信息。在6，500个美国家庭和1，500名专家的样本中，信念广泛分散，甚至关于冲击的方向效应，家庭和专家之间的平均信念存在很大差异。这种分歧的部分原因似乎是因为受访者认为冲击的传播渠道不同，特别是需求与供应方机制。我们提供了关于联想记忆在驱动思想和预测异质性方面的作用的证据：上下文线索和先前的经验塑造了个人检索的传播渠道，从而形成了他们做出的预测。我们的研究结果为宏观经济预期中广泛记录的分歧提供了新的视角。

5．Product LifeCycle, Learning, and Nominal Shocks

产品生命周期、学习和名义冲击

[url=]David Argente[/url], [url=]Chen Yeh[/url]

The Review of Economic Studies,Volume 89, Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 2992–3054, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac004

This article documents a new set of stylized facts on howpricing moments depend on product age and emphasizes how this heterogeneity iscrucial for the amplification of nominal shocks to the real economy. Exploitinginformation from a unique panel containing billions of transactions in the USconsumer goods sector, we show that our empirical findings are consistent witha narrative in which firms face demand uncertainty and learn through prices.Such a mechanism of active learning from prices can strongly influence aneconomy’s aggregate price level and can thus be important for assessing thedegree of monetary non-neutrality. To quantify this, we build a generalequilibrium menu cost model with active learning and exogenous entry thatfeatures heterogeneity in pricing moments over the life cycle of products.Under this setup, firms engage in active learning to deal with uncertainty ontheir demand curves. Firms choose prices not only to maximize static profitsbut also to create signals to obtain valuable information on their demand. Inthe calibrated version of our model, the cumulative real effects of a nominalshock are approximately three times as large compared to a standardprice-setting model. The main intuition behind this result is that activelearning weakens the selection effect. Price changes are mainly determined byforces of active learning and, hence, become more orthogonal to aggregateshocks, which reduces the aggregate price flexibility of the economy.

本文记录了一组关于定价时刻如何取决于产品年龄的典型事实，并强调了这种异质性对于放大对实体经济的名义冲击至关重要。利用来自包含美国消费品行业数十亿笔交易的独特面板的信息，我们表明我们的实证发现与公司面临需求不确定性并通过价格学习的叙述一致。这种主动学习价格的机制可以强烈影响经济体的总价格水平，因此对于评估货币非中性程度非常重要。为了量化这一点，我们建立了一个具有主动学习和外生进入的一般均衡菜单成本模型，该模型具有产品生命周期中定价时刻的异质性。在这种设置下，公司进行主动学习以应对需求曲线的不确定性。企业选择价格不仅是为了最大化静态利润，也是为了创造信号来获得有价值的需求信息。在我们模型的校准版本中，名义冲击的累积实际效应大约是标准定价模型的三倍。这个结果背后的主要直觉是主动学习削弱了选择效应。

——更多期刊动态，请持续关注gzh：理想主义的百年孤独