Investor impact
While some investors may be constrained to have only AAA paper in their portfolios, the fact that Moody’s and Fitch have not moved to downgrade the government could lessen any market impact.
Equities could react negatively to the downgrade but “a Treasury sell-off is extremely unlikely,” wrote analysts at Commerzbank, who noted in times of turmoil, U.S. Treasury notes would still be “the place to go.”
“A weakened economic environment in which there are little alternatives to U.S. Treasurys will support the market in the immediate,” agreed Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist at BTIG LLC, in an emailed note Saturday.
Belgium, Italy, Spain, Japan, Canada and Ireland are among the AAA sovereigns that have been downgraded, with most if not all of the instances having little impact on yields outside of an immediate spike, noted Greenhaus.
The downgrade could ultimately prove fruitful, if Canada’s experience is any guide, the analyst said. Faced with serious economic troubles in 1994, the country took steps to balance its budget and create conditions conducive to job growth. By 1997, Canada had moved its budget deficit to a surplus and regained its AAA rating.
“There are certainly economic differences between Canada in the mid-1990s and the U.S. today but conceptually, to the extend the loss of the AAA rating sparks serious action by policy makers, this could help the country address the longer-term issues,” said Greenhaus.
S&P on April 18 warned the U.S. government risked losing its AAA rating held since 1941 unless lawmakers negotiated a plan by 2013 to cut budget deficits and the nation’s red ink, with anything less than $4 trillion in cuts threatening the rating.
But the timing of the S&P action was surprising, given the assumption that the rating agency would have allowed lawmakers time to “work or not work before stepping in,” Greenhaus said.
Yet the analyst expressed hope the downgrade would ultimately prove useful, saying “the U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path, the way forward is clear and the hope is this announcement spurs policy makers into action.”