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The risk of a crisis precipitated by a sudden change in expectations is likely to be greater the larger are a country’s short-term obligations and the maturity mismatch between assets and liabilities (indicated, for instance, by low levels of international reserves in relation to the stock of shorterm external debt or the domestic banking sector’s liabilities) because the economy will then be more vulnerable to a run by a fairly modest share of lenders. A country with a weak domestic banking system may also be at risk because financial market participants may see this situation as a constraint on the monetary authorities’ability (and willingness) to raise interest rates in defense of the currency.
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