题名	环境政策实施效果的量化分析：CGE模型在中国能源环境税与自愿协议政策分析中的应用
姓名	黄英娜
院系	环境学院
专业	自然地理
外文题名	Quantitative Analysis on the Effects of Environmental Policy Implementation
第一导师姓名	王学军
第一导师单位	环境学院
关键词	环境政策;能源环境税;资源协议;CGE模型;二级CES生产函数
分类号	X24
学科	自然地理学
摘要	对环境政策的实施效果进行量化分析，已经成为一些发达国家环境政策决策过程中的一个重要环节。为了减少政策风险和提高政策实施效率，中国ZF也越来越重视这项工作的开展。为解决中国能源消费引发的环境问题，需要推出一系列新的政策措施，本论文的主要研究内容是应用一个可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型，对能源环境税和自愿协议政策实施的效果和影响进行量化分析和预测，并探讨其推出的合理形式，从而为环境政策决策提供依据。根据能源环境税和自愿协议政策的实施效果和影响所涉及的具体指标，建立了一个9部门静态标准CGE模型。在建模过程中，根据中国的实际数据，运用计量经济学方法选择了(K/L)/E型二级CES生产函数作为模型供给部分的中心方程；并且，针对过去国内学者在建立中国CGE模型的过程中过度依赖国外数据这一问题，本论文根据中国数据对模型中各部门生产函数的替代参数和消费需求函数的边际消费倾向参数进行了标定。通过在标准CGE模型中加入反映相关环境效果及经济影响的模块，应用拓展后的CGE模型分别模拟了在消费环节对中国工业部门投入的能源产品同时征收硫税和碳税，以及对部分行业实行自愿协议政策的效果和影响；进而尝试模拟了将两项政策联合推出（即普遍征税，实行自愿协议者免税）的实施效果。通过对三种政策方案成本效益分析的结果进行对比，得出结论：如果在中国联合推出自愿协议和能源环境税政策，可以在提高能源利用效率和优化能源消费结构方面，以及在减排SO2和CO2等方面取得更为理想的效果，同时可以实现政策经济成本的相对最小化。鉴于自愿协议在解决能源环境问题方面具有较强的功效，我国ZF正在积极推动该项政策实施的试点工作。作为国内应用CGE模型对不完全经济性环境政策——自愿协议的实施效果进行定量化分析的首次尝试，本论文的研究工作可为在我国合理推出该项环境政策提供一定的参考依据。
外文摘要	Quantitative policy analysis has become an important tool in environmental policy decision makings in many developed countries. In order to reduce the risk and improve the efficiency of policy implementation, Chinese government has started to stimulate the carrying out of this work in policy making processes. For resolving serious environmental problems generated from energy use in China, more policy instruments such as energy- environment taxes and voluntary agreements should be adopted. The main purpose of this dissertation is to apply a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the effects of the application of these policies, and at the same time, to provide evidences of the feasibility of their implementation in China. In this dissertation, an atemporal standard 9-sector CGE model was developed according to the specific circumstances of the environmental policies to be analyzed. Based on the available data of China, a nested 2-Class CES production function of (K/L)/E type was selected to serve the core function form of the “supply part” in the CGE model, by adopting an econometric approach. Also on the basis of Chinese data, the related parameters in the model were estimated. These works make the model more appropriate for simulating the effects of environmental policies in China. After extended by incorporating environmental effect equations, the CGE model was applied to simulate the effects of levying energy-environment taxes on energy inputs in industrial sectors, practicing voluntary agreements in selected industrial sectors, as well as the mixed use of the two policy instruments. Comparing the simulating results of the three policy scenarios leads to a conclusion like this: if energy-environment taxation and voluntary agreements are implemented at the same time in a certain proper way in China, more desirable effects could be achieved in the respects of improving the energy efficiency, optimizing the energy consumption structure, as well as reducing SO2 and CO2 emissions. At the same time, the economic costs of policy implementation could also be minimized comparatively. In view of the strong advantages of voluntary agreements in resolving environmental problems generated from energy use，which has been proved from the experiences of some foreign countries, Chinese government is making experimental implementations of the policy in some areas. As the first attempt to apply a CGE model in quantifying the effects of incomplete economic environment policy instruments, such as voluntary agreements, in our country, the studies of this dissertation provide some evidences for the feasibility of implementing the policy in China, which could provide certain reference value to the environmental policy decision.
研究领域	环境经济与管理
总页码	93
参考文献总数	98
答辩日期	2003-6-10
馆藏	013/D2003(20)