16 September 2011

Asia Economics Monthly - September 2011

Table of Contents
Asia economic and financial forecasts ............... Page 2
Overview ............................................................ Page 3
China................................................................... Page 4
Hong Kong.......................................................... Page 8
India .................................................................. Page 10
Indonesia .......................................................... Page 16
Malaysia............................................................ Page 18
Philippines ........................................................ Page 20
Singapore ......................................................... Page 22
South Korea ...................................................... Page 24
Sri Lanka ........................................................... Page 28
Taiwan .............................................................. Page 30
Thailand ............................................................ Page 32
Interest rate and inflation charts....................... Page 34
Asian economic indicators ............................... Page 38

China

. IP data overstates China’s growth momentum. The
few factors that supported August export growth are
also not sustainable. Sequential GDP growth may hit
its next trough in early 2012.
. Monetary policy will likely remain tight in the near
term, and “targeted relaxation” will unlikely be
sufficient to boost market sentiment. China’s next
fiscal stimulus package, if needed, may focus on
boosting consumption, public housing, agriculture,
and services.
. From a global perspective, China’s domestic demand
is still way too small to offset the impact of a
recession in the EU/US.