所言极是啊！ 目前的数据和我们的经验都表明，我国居民消费率从78年到现在是很平直坡度很缓的下降。

个人认为投资波动强是因为我国不同时期采取的不同经济政策和发展战略!!在一个政府主导型的市场经济类型下，政府的政策引导作用不可忽视！

至于国企是不是企业的讨论，个人认为没多大关系。其实我们所说的投资主要还是固定资产投资，其中大多数还是政府可控的！

I think saving is a very important elements to boost the Chinese economy. This is the main reason that why China is able to maintain such a high growth rate of averagely 10.3% per year since 1970s.

There is another factor called Marginal product of labor and capital. The turbulence before 1970 has destroyed many capital and labor, and after 1970, a relatively stable environment accumilated labor, and the marginal product of capital is high since there is little labor left. And thus the investment rate outweigh the depreciation rate and thus boost the economy move to the steady state. What is more, the high saving rates will give momentum to the investment and keep the economy a high potential to increase.

However, the increase caused by saving and investment is contemporary, in order to maintain the high level of growth, it is the consumption matter. And this will relate to the farming problems. Chinese farmer has taken up quite a big part in the total population, so it is the demand-side policy to encourage the farmers to spend. And this will requrie a legal system to prtect the farmers and make the market for farmers grow in a healthy trend.

The investment also will increase because the effect from abroad. The foreign direct investment (FDI) is increasing throughout the recent years and this is also the major effect of the boost of Chinese economy.However, the increase in the foreign direct investment may be dangerous, with regard to the reason that the exchange rate is low and the consumption of the economy haven't gone up as fast as the investment and may cause the problem of overinvest, which will lead to inflaiton.

Thus, to sum up, the policy now needed is to increase the consumption rate of the economy and reduce some kind of investment, spend more on the welfare side and keep the economy develop in a less dangerouse way.

很 精辟的论述，受益良多，楼上总结了投资可从资本、劳动力等方面考虑，消费则需考虑储蓄、收入、出口这块了，很有启发！！

“I think saving is a very important elements to boost the Chinese economy. This is the main reason that why China is able to maintain such a high growth rate of averagely 10.3% per year since 1970s.”

but there is another question.the topic is which factors lead investment and consume increasing,not the issue of which elements of the high gowth of the whole economy.

thank you all the time!

[此贴子已经被作者于2006-11-30 16:10:41编辑过]

好像该论坛更像是一个享用无尽的资源库，没有建设成为探讨学问，迸发思想火花的平台。

建站的初衷就是这样吗？

不过能建成这样已经相当不容易了！

继续顶这个话题！！

投资预期收益率≥市场利率时，投资增加。因此，一般来说利率低时投资需求增大；又有：⊿y=k_i⊿i,收入增加，导致消费增加。