Asia Local Markets Monthly - Inflation has peaked

Table of Contents
Summary Market Views ................................... Page 02
Economics ....................................................... Page 03
Country Sections .............................................. Page 04
Policy Rate Forecasts ....................................... Page 41
Economic Diary ................................................ Page 45
Bond Supply Monitor........................................ Page 46
Monetary Policy Monitor .................................. Page 47
Local Markets Analytics ................................... Page 48
Asian Economic Indicators ............................... Page 53

Economics: Inflation has peaked and may fall faster than we’d expected as food prices globally are dropping quickly. Such a scenario would imply significantly more scope for rate cuts in 2012 than we currently forecast.

China: We see rising probability of an RRR cut before the year-end. The curve is pricing about 40% chance of the same. At current levels, however, we do not recommend chasing the rally as the 7D fixing remains above the Repo IRS/NDIRS curve.

Hong Kong: We expect corporate liability flows to slow down towards the year-end and the Hi-Li basis to stay around the current levels.