大摩最近经济报告
China Economics
2012: Stable Growth amid
Disinflation
The 2012 outlook is less optimistic: The key theme of
our 2012 macro outlook is slower growth and lower CPI
inflation with looming external risks. Even with lower
reliance on exports as a growth engine, China is unlikely
to be immune from much weaker external demand, as
our global forecasts show a bumpier path for recovery in
DM economies than we previously envisaged. On the
other hand, we expect domestic demand to hold up well,
with robust consumption growth and firming gross
capital formation growth in 2012.
Asia Pacific Economics
Cutting 2012 Estimates
Again, Projecting Slow
Recovery in 2013
Cutting our growth estimates for 2012 GDP growth
again: Since we downgraded our regional growth
outlook in August 2011, we have been constantly
worried about the increasing downside risks to growth.
In addition to further evidence of weakening domestic
demand, the external environment in Europe has made
us more concerned about the region’s growth outlook.
We are now cutting our GDP growth estimates for the
AxJ region to 6.9% in 2012 from 7.3% previously.
ASEAN Economics
When DM Falters, How Do
ASEAN Economies Stack Up?
Morgan Stanley’s global economics team cuts its
2012 global GDP growth forecast from 3.8% to 3.5%:
The BBB global recovery (Bumpy, Brittle and Below-par)
has morphed into a CCC situation (Confidence,
Competency, and Credibility. We now expect a
recession in Europe with weak growth in the US. We roll
out our 2013 global forecast at 3.9%. This anaemic
recovery reflects the shallow recovery in Europe and
fiscal tightening in US. As a result, we cut our 2012
ASEAN4 growth forecast from 4.8% to 4.4% and we
expect 2013 growth at 5.5%. The latter is below the 6%
in the bull years of 2004-2007, reflecting our view that
ASEAN will not be immune to what looks.
India Economics
2012 Outlook: Heading for
Credit Crisis Lows
Another leg of domestic demand slowdown ahead:
A combination of high and persistent inflation, slow pace
of policy reforms to boost investment, graft-related
investigations, weak global capital markets and a weak
global economy has begun to weigh on India’s growth
trend. We expect further significant deceleration in
domestic demand in the coming months.