Table of Contents
China property 2012 outlook ...................................................3
Funding is all that matters during industry consolidation ..........................................3
Strategy from now until 2012 – add beta towards end 2012......................................3
Consistent tightening – the key catalyst for consolidation.........................................7
Let the big firms become bigger ..............................................................................9
Financial and earnings outlook.............................................11
Earnings and NAV estimate changes .....................................................................12
Interconnection of cash flow outlook and earnings growth .....................................14
Stock picks............................................................................................................16
Industry Outlook.....................................................................21
Private housing starts may see Y/Y decline in 2012 ...............................................21
Sales trend in 2011 to be continued, favoring low-tier cities ...................................22
Oversupply pressure in some cities, but not nationwide..........................................24
Companies ..............................................................................27
Agile Property Holdings Ltd – pre-empted by gearing............................................28
C C Land – operational improvement not priced in ................................................29
China Overseas Land & Investment – Still a growing company..............................31
China Resources Land – Capped by injection model ..............................................32
China Vanke Company – Growth appears contained..............................................33
Country Garden Holdings – Still a relatively safe harbor........................................34
Evergrande Real Estate – Growth to continue; cash flow is tight but manageable....35
Franshion Properties (China) Ltd. – Comfortable cash flow position in FY12.........36
Glorious Property – Earnings growth is getting less visible ....................................37
Greentown China Holdings – Liquidity risks to persist...........................................38
Guangzhou R&F Properties – Losing market share................................................39
Hopson Development Holdings – beware of value trap ..........................................40
KWG Property Holding Ltd. – Sales sluggish, but mostly priced in........................41
Longfor Properties Co. Ltd. – The market share gainer ..........................................43
Poly (HK) Investments Limited – Expansion at the wrong time; downgrade to
Underweight .........................................................................................................44
Renhe Commercial Holdings – Not a value trap.....................................................45
Shimao Property Holdings – Minor de-leverage.....................................................47
Sino-Ocean Land – Regional expansion yet to be proven .......................................48
Shui On Land Ltd – NAV discount may remain wide.............................................49
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