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《Global Outlook: Uphill Struggle》

CONTENTS
Summary Tables 2
Summary: Uphill Struggle 4
Risk Scenarios 7
US Rates Medium-Term Forecasts 10
Eurozone Rates Medium-Term Forecasts 11
US: Disaster Averted, Risks Remain 12
Eurozone: Output Contraction 16
Japan: Trend Growth Rate is Close to Zero 20
China: Selective Easing Has Started 24
Eurozone Countries
Germany: Home Market to Offset Export Dip 28
France: Under Pressure 30
Italy: Time for Action 32
Spain: Domestic Contraction 34
Netherlands: Thrift to Fend Off Crisis 36
Belgium: Tightening the Purse Strings 37
Austria: Era of Weak Growth 38
Portugal: More Tightening, Deeper Recession 39
Finland: Slowing Along With Peers 40
Ireland: Not Out Of The Woods 41
Greece: Shared Suffering 42
Slovenia: Recession in 2012 43
Slovakia: Slower on Weak External Demand 44
Other Europe
Denmark: Headwinds to Growth 45
UK: Return to Contraction 46
Sweden: Loss of Momentum 48
Norway: Better Positioned 50
Switzerland: Suffering from a Strong Franc 52
CEEMEA
Belarus: Seeking Financing 53
Russia: Hot Election Season 54
Ukraine: Refocusing on the IMF 56
Kazakhstan: Among the Growth Leaders 58
Poland: Sharp Fiscal Tightening Ahead 60
Hungary: IMF to the Rescue 62
Czech Republic: Soft Monetary Policy Ahead 64
Romania: More Easing in Store 66
Bulgaria: Deleveraging Risks 68
Saudi Arabia: Robust Growth 69
United Arab Emirates: Rent-Driven Deflation 70
Qatar: Diversifying the Sources of Growth 71
Turkey: Dual Policy Rate 72
South Africa: Slow Recovery 74
Asia Pacific
Australia: Returning to Normal 76
India: Harder Than It Looks 78
South Korea: On the Defensive 80
Taiwan: Technical Recession 82
Hong Kong: Speed Bump 84
Indonesia: Weathering the Storm 85
Other ASEAN: Bumpy Ride 86
The Americas
Brazil: Growth Slowdown Spurs Rate Cuts 88
Mexico: Below-Trend Growth 90
Chile: BCCh is Ready to Ease Policy 92
Argentina: Relying on Old Recipes 93
Colombia: Domestic Demand Drives Growth 94
Venezuela: Aided by Pre-Election Stimulus 95
Peru: Growing Fast but Worries Linger 96
Canada: Lowering Expectations 97
Financial and Monetary Conditions Indices 98
Long-Term Economic Forecasts 101
Key Central Bank Dates 105
Contacts 108

《2012: a frugal and crucial year－An investment outlook for 2012》

CONTENTS
MACROECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS
• Macroeconomic outlook 4
• Market outlook 9
ASSET CLASSES FOR 2012
• High Income Equities 14
• Emerging Market Equities 16
• Emerging Market Debt 18
• Global High Yield 19
• Convertible Bonds 20