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Contents page
Pain before gain 2
1. Pain before gain 3
— 1.1 Executive summary........................................................................................3
1.2 UBS top commodity picks 5
— <3-month view......................................................................................................5
— >12-month view....................................................................................................6
1.3 UBS global top 10 equities 7
UBS commodity price forecasts 9
2.1 Signal failure? 14
2.2 Capital reflux 15
2.4 Gold: Why buy equities now? 30
2.6 Discount shopping in the UK 38
3. Weather-driven pit-stop 43
4.1 Copper 45
Aluminium 49
— China’s capacity under pressure ........................................................................49
Nickel 53
— Monster project overhang...................................................................................53
Zinc 56
— Getting tighter ....................................................................................................56
Iron ore 58
— Game-playing.....................................................................................................58
Metallurgical coal 65
— ‘Oh no, it's raining again…’.................................................................................65
Thermal coal 70
— Buying deferred..................................................................................................70
Uranium 75
— Capacity closure vs. build...................................................................................75
Gold 80
— Explosive ingredients .........................................................................................80
Silver 87
— Out of the spotlight.............................................................................................87
Platinum 90
— More cautious ....................................................................................................90
Palladium 94
— Mojo returns?.....................................................................................................94
UBS commodity cost curves 97