NU（联合国）：贸易与发展报告（2005）

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TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT REPORT, 2005

Report by the secretariat of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

UNITED NATIONS New York and Geneva, 2005

Chapter I
CURRENT ISSUES IN THE WORLD ECONOMY ........................................................................... 1
A. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 1
B. The world economy: growth performance and prospects ........................................................... 2
1. Economic activity in developed countries ..................................................................................... 2
2. Economic activity in developing countries ................................................................................... 4
3. Recent developments in world trade and finance ....................................................................... 10
C. The global imbalances and the United States current-account deficit .................................... 12
1. Twenty-five years of deficits in the United States ...................................................................... 14
2. The surplus regions........................................................................................................................ 18
3. Tailoring policy measures ............................................................................................................. 19
D. Oil price hikes in perspective.......................................................................................................... 20
1. The impact of an oil price shock on prices and economic activity ........................................... 20
2. The 1973–1974 and 1979–1980 oil price shocks: putting current events in perspective........ 22
3. The impact on oil-importing developing economies .................................................................. 25
E. Rapid growth in China and India and the profit-investment nexus ........................................ 28
1. The sectors driving economic growth .......................................................................................... 30
2. Stable and balanced demand growth as a condition for sustained rapid growth ..................... 33
3. Policy conditions underlying the Asian catching up processes ................................................. 35
4. Challenges for sustained growth in China and India .................................................................. 38
Notes ......................................................................................................................................................... 39

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