This is my thesis for my BA degree at Shanghai Normal University and I appreciate Michele from LSE who gave me some useful suggestion. All rights are reserved by the author.
FDI, the Financial Accelerator and the Volatility of Macro economy: A Simple DSGE
and Empirical Evidence in China
By Jack Yifei Zhang
The Chinese edition of this paper has been published on China Econometric Academic
Network (CEAN) as the working paper.
http://www.wise.xmu.edu.cn/cean/getpaper.aspx?id=332
It was then republished by the Working Paper Series on CCER’s CENET, Peking
University.
http://www.cenet.org.cn/article.asp?articleid=51679
Abstract The model of this paper based on Bernanke, Gertler and Gilshrist (1998)
includes a new variable, direct foreign investment (FDI), in order to analyze the
effects of it on the fluctuation of macro economy level. Firstly, FDI can increase the
general prices (CPI) under China’s fixed exchange rate system and the augment of
general prices will not only increase the opportunity cost of loan for commercial
banks but also change families’ decisions on saving and consuming. This change will
fina lly enlarge the fluctuation of macro ecnomy through financial accelerator. But on
the other hand, FDI can directly relieve difficulties of financing for both local and
multi-national enterprises. Which effect is bigger in Chinese economy? According to
a simple DSGE and relevant empirical analysis in Chapter 3 and 5, we can conclude
that both two effects do exist in Chinese Economy. The standard VAR has proved that
growing of FDI will increase the general prices and CPI will influence the credit
market. But the direct effect of FDI which relieves difficulties of financing for
enterprises is bigger than the former one. So for Chinese economy, keeping steady
general prices and carrying out policies to relieve the difficulties of financing for
companies are both helpful to keep economy more steady. (JEL: E32, C51, F21)
Keywords: Financial Accelerator;FDI;ARIMA;Unrestricted VAR
Jack Yifei Zhang
An undergraduate student in SHNU, China
Shanghai, China, 200435
jack1000262607@hotmail.com